January 22, 2024
The longer the football world goes without official confirmation either way, the more it appears that Nick Sirianni is safe as the Eagles head coach for next season. Sean Desai and Matt Patricia are out and a new defensive play-caller is on their way at some point. Brian Johnson is the team's offensive coordinator, for now, but if he doesn't end up as a head coach elsewhere after several interviews, he might find himself packing up his things at the NovaCare Complex as well.
The best-case scenario for the Eagles in 2024 is that the new play-caller they hire if/when Johnson is gone is aces, the offense looks like a juggernaut once more and then that person gets poached next offseason, kicking off this cycle all over again. The key to sustainability in the NFL is offensive efficiency and the Eagles will continue throwing variables into that equation when they give so much power to a coordinator who will jump at the first head coaching opportunity.
This isn't to say that a "CEO-style" coach can't work in today's NFL. Leadership is more important than scheme. In his first 2.5 years in Philadelphia, it appeared that Sirianni was that guy, but the degree to with which this Eagles team fell apart at the end of this past regular season and after their gutting at the hands of the Buccaneers, it's fair to question if he can do that again with this specific roster. Sirianni is 34-17 as the head coach with a 2-3 postseason record. Context matters though!
There are so many potential doors here. It feels just as likely that Sirianni has the Eagles back in the Super Bowl next February in New Orleans as does that he gets canned midseason following a 21-point road loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football to drop the Birds to 5-7.
If Sirianni were to leave, I'd expect him to find success elsewhere. Just because he could do that, however, doesn't mean a clean break is foolish. Andy Reid solidified himself as a top-five coach in league history after he left Philly and went to Kansas City. Reid was 12-20 in his last two seasons with the Eagles, had a disastrous 2011 draft and employed coaching changes that continue to baffle Philadelphians to this day. It was right for them to part ways and it's worked out for everyone. The Eagles won a Super Bowl before Reid did after all.
The same is true of Doug Pederson after capturing the franchise's first Super Bowl title. It would've been intriguing to see Pederson develop Jalen Hurts as the team's unquestioned QB1 for a whole offseason, but fresh blood was needed and Sirianni was the catalyst for the franchise's quick turnaround. It just so happens that he might be the catalyst for the Eagles' epic downfall, too.
My gut tells me that Sirianni is back for 2024, but on the shortest of leashes as the team hopes new offensive and defensive coordinators have next year's Eagles resembling the 2022 squad rather than the 2023 one. It's such a deep head coaching free agent class, but with the way this process has been dragged out and the lack of movement on potential new coaches, running things back feels most likely. Stagnation killed the Reid and Pederson eras though and the duo of Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman are hoping they don't find themselves in a similar place 12 months from now.
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