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April 14, 2017

Eagles mailbag: Why the recent hype on Gareon Conley? How about Sidney Jones in round 2?

During our weekly Eagles chat, there were a lot of questions that I couldn't get to in time as well as some recent unanswered email, so let's do a chat overflow mailbag post.

Question from Frank - Heard multiple reports of analysts talking about Lattimore and Conley as 1a and 1b corners in the draft. I’m pretty sure you disagree, so where do you think that idea is coming from?

To begin, I like Conley. We initially profiled him way back in November, so he's a guy who has been on my radar for quite some time. I also had him among the top 10 options for the Eagles at pick No. 14, although he was a little low on that list. Anyone who made that list at all, to be clear, can play.

Conley's cover skills are very good, as evidenced by his coverage numbers the last two seasons, which we've posted before:

 Gareon ConleyTargeted Comp Yards TD-INT 
 201558 21 412 3-2 
 201643 14 174 1-4 
 TOTAL101 35 586 4-6 


That's excellent. On the downside, he has work to do as a tackler. In 2016, he had 26 tackles, and 9 missed tackles. That needs to improve drastically.

Conley is a player many now believe could go top 10, and is a "late riser." Conley had a very good Combine, which certainly helped him, but his "late riser" status is likely more of the media beginning to catch up to what NFL personnel people think.

The people who really like him, like him because of his cover skills. Poor tackling bothers me more than most, it would seem, but that's kind of what makes the NFL Draft fun. Different people have different preferences in players and skill sets.

So to answer the question, I believe that the recent Conley hype is a product of NFL personnel evaluations leaking out. It happens every year. Last year, another example was Ohio State CB Eli Apple, who went 10th overall to the Giants. He was a guy who was a "late riser," AKA the media and fans had undervalued him in comparison to NFL folks.

Question from Birds fan in Boston: Would you trade the Eagles’ second-round pick this year for a first-round pick next year? If yes, then why wouldn’t you draft Jones in round two? Essentially you are trading this year’s 2 for a 1 next year.

Yes, I would trade the Eagles' second-round pick in 2017 for a first round pick in 2018. No, I would not take Sidney Jones in the second round on the premise that he would be worth a first round pick next year.

Jones could actually come back and play this season, as his agent believes he'll be ready to go near the end of October, via Matt Bowen of ESPN:

Jones' agent, Doug Hendrickson, said the six-month timeline is a worst-case scenario: "Doctor feels he will be ready to play by the end of October at the latest."

Even if Jones is ready to play by the end of October (which may be wishful thinking), he will have missed the entirety of the offseason. I can't imagine he would be very effective as a rookie. You would then only have him under contract for three more seasons thereafter. 

Beyond that, obviously his ruptured Achilles is a very serious injury. Some players come back from them and play at a high level. Some lose their effectiveness to some degree. Clearly, it's a risk.

Dave Mangels of Bleeding Green Nation did a good job of noting how unsuccessful "injury redshirt" players have been in recent yearsIf Jones is still there when the Eagles pick at the tail end of the third round, I think that would be the sweet spot for him.

Question from Tom - I feel like no one is really acknowledging the real position of need for the Eagles: OLB. The Eagles currently don’t have a weakside guy (Kendricks doesn’t count) and Bradham is a free agent after this year. My question to you is, would guys like Haason Reddick, Zach Cunningham, or Jarrad Davis be reaches at 14? I love Foster and want him badly but can’t imagine him being there at 14.

I think there will be better players available at pick No. 14 than Reddick, Cunnningham, and Davis. Foster's talent is clearly worth the 14th overall pick, but I wonder if character concerns will hurt him.

I know Kendricks "doesn't count" as he's highly unlikely to be on the roster in 2017, but he only played about 27 percent of the snaps last season. In other words, the Eagles' "base defense" in which they have three linebackers on the field is really more like a sub-package as they have a nickel corner in the game far more often than not.

Yes, Bradham will be a free agent next offseason, but if the Eagles want to retain him beyond 2017, I would imagine they will be able to do so at a low cost, considering Bradham's two "dumbass" arrests.

The Eagles could certainly add a linebacker, but it's nowhere near as big a need as positions like corner, edge rusher, or running back, among others.


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