Eagles locks and long shots: Saquon Barkley's return to New York is a sure thing

Is Nick Sirianni coaching for his job? It’s a partially loaded question as we know nothing changes with his job security if – and when – the Philadelphia Eagles roll through New York. But what happens if the impossible goes down; a team with a gift-wrapped scenario of winning a game – fueled by the biggest revenge narrative of the offseason – finds a way to lose? The impossible becomes the inexcusable. 

The reality is no player in the NFL may be more motivated to stick it to his former team than Saquon Barkley. Everyone from Jalen Hurts down to the last man on the roster knows this. It should help us locate the best lock for this week’s game, and maybe in building our long shot! We were a 2nd half Cleveland TD away from hitting our 26-1 ticket from last week.

Week 7 lock: Barkley first half TD

Ok, so everyone knows that Barkley is motivated. People are rushing to the betting window to make some sort of anytime TD bet. The reality is the -145 to -165 for Barkley to score is just a criminal ask. But we know Barkley is going to be a big piece of the offense, a major focus in the red zone, and even the TD vulture Hurts will defer to Barkley here. There’s a better play that rewards us with plus money while keeping the early revenge narrative.

The operative word here being “early” as we look in the first half for some value. The Eagles have sputtered in opening drives this year, mostly resulting in brutal three and outs. The Birds will ensure Barkley gets his as soon as the opportunity arises. The momentum swing for Barkley scoring will put the home crowd in a ridiculous bind. If anything, they may turn on their home team and start rooting for Barkley – right out of Rocky IV. 

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The Giants will push the ball as much as they can early to stick with the Eagles offense. That comes by throwing to now healthy Malik Nabers. The Eagles will work Barkley in both the ground and passing game, which opens another out for him to score. We’ve seen some successful ways in getting Barkley open, including that brutal drop from earlier this year. 

This is a massive spot for Barkley, but the value is in him scoring in the first half.  

Lock of the week: Saquon Barkley 1H ATTD +165 (FD) 

Week 7 long shot: Calcaterra TD and Defensive TD

No Dallas Goedert this week for the Birds but that’s been largely overshadowed with the return of both top receivers. The offense moved last week on the outside with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith putting in serious work against the Browns. We’ve seen another tight end find his spots, although coming far less frequent than Goedert. There’s going to be a significantly higher target share this week for Grant Calcaterra; who has already taken advantage of some throws his way.

I like him to find a couple of soft spots in the Giants defense with so much focus on the WR duo and newly minted RB. Stopping Calcaterra is rather low on the Giants white board. We add him as our first leg and capitalize on a lesser guarded spot on a bad team. 

The other leg is just a play on how bad things have gotten for Daniel Jones. I’d love to just play a D/ST (Defense & Special Teams) touchdown solo, but the special teams needs a little more special attention. The better play is just focusing on the Eagles defense causing turnovers, no matter if it’s an interception or fumble. Jones is just brutal and has been regressing ever since Barkley took him to the playoffs. 

We get a 38-1 ticket on two TDs in a game that Philly should walk away in victory. The Giants aren’t well coached. Our play is based on them being stupid more than anything else. They wont fix the Calcaterra issue nor will they bench Jones. 

Let’s cash!

Long shot of the week:  Calcaterra ATTD x Philly Defense ATTD +3802 SGP