October 25, 2024
Colleen Claggett/for PhillyVoice
DeVonta Smith #6 of the Philadelphia Eagles warms up on a commercial break during a NFL football game between the Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 13, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
The Eagles head to Cincinnati this weekend and as we will see, this line makes absolutely zero sense unless you look at it from one, narrow perspective – and it's not one I’m willing to risk money backing.
This is a massive statement game for the Eagles as they can go to 5-2 despite looking like a 2-5 team a lot of the season so far. We see a fantastic opportunity to build a long shot here based on one primary concern for the Bengals – stopping anyone carrying the football. Here are your lock and long shot plays for Week 8:
Last week’s lock saw Saquon Barkley cash a first half TD – and you should expect something similar against Cincy. No, we aren’t taking the same play, rather a position on the game itself. Riddle me this; a team with the better record, better offense and defense, and most exploitable matchup on the field (Barkley vs a CIN D giving up 5+ YPC) is catching a full three on the road.
There is no more home field advantage – COVID proved that and the betting numbers have adjusted. So, a 2-4 Cincy team that can’t stop a frail WR from carrying the ball is going to win and cover a spread. There’s nothing indicating that Joe Burrow has returned from poor play as we’ve already seen with Jalen Hurts now protecting the football.
Still not convinced? This 2-4 Bengals team barely got by Cleveland, where the Browns out-gained Cincy by over 100 yards. Take the three as it’s on the move.
The bet: Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-118 DraftKings)
This is my favorite SGP for the Eagles-Bengals game! pic.twitter.com/LupRlHGDaa
— ShanderBets (@shanderbets) October 25, 2024
Time to build. We can anticipate the Eagles playing a typical road game script where they try to establish some passing dominance early, only to relent to the masses and start running Barkley. Of course, we may get lucky, and see the Birds just turn to their top ground weapon right away – which further helps our cause. Barkley’s rushing and receiving yards sit below 100 combined and that’s an over play all day. He’s live to hit 100 on the ground against Cincy but we like him involved in the passing game – getting a chance to break a quick pass in the open field.
This is a DeVonta Smith game. We are getting incredible buy low numbers on Smitty as he’s struggled to match expectations – be it injury or without much help around him. With so much focus on the ground game, the Bengals are going to rely on their corners to play man on both Batmans. This is where Smith can crush that 54.5 Receiving yards total along with a score.
Last thing, remember we already took the three points with the Eagles, but this feels more like an outright victory. The NFL key numbers still run, in order of how often they hit, as 3 – 7 – 6 -14 – 10. Getting ahead of both 6 and 7 allows us to clear two key numbers. The Birds winning by 6 or 7 covers that last leg, something they have the talent to accomplish.
The bet: single game parlay (+1446 FanDuel)
Eytan Shander is a long time radio and TV personality in Philadelphia. In addition to his weekly column, you can currently listen and watch him on Fox29’s Good Day and other sports shows. He’s giving betting advice on OddsShopper. A lifetime Eagles fan, Eytan lives just outside the city with his wife.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
