Cash it! We hit both our lock and long shot plays last week – including a +1446 same game parlay. Not bad as the Birds continue to pay off – especially as the offense looks less and less like a Nick Sirianni production.
With the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars coming to town and the possible end of Doug Pederson’s run in Duval, the Birds have another shot to explode on offense. That’s the best area to attack this week as Jacksonville is either banged up or just bad in key positions on both sides of the ball.
This is a soft spot in the schedule and a fantastic area to continue to bet on value. While the buy low effect might be gone for someone like DeVonta Smith, there’s actually a fantastic angle with another high-powered Eagles player. Here are your lock and long shot for Week 9!
Week 9 lock: AJ Brown over 77.5 yards
AJ Brown is for mature audiences only. There should be a rating warning before every Eagles game as he gashes opposing defenses, slashing through even the best of coverages. In this case, it’s like the first person who goes down in one of these movies – as the Jags have absolutely zero shot to slow down Brown. He’s certainly likely to score – again – but the better play for us is what he else does with the football.
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The Jaguars have no pass rush which coincides with the protection getting better for Jalen Hurts. The other side is how bad the Jags pass defense is, namely how often they give up big plays in the air. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL in 30+, 40+, and 50+ pass plays – they just don’t do it enough. This is the game. Feed the monster and watch him slay. Hurts will have plenty of time to wait for Brown to pick apart horrific Jacksonville coverage, on his way to covering his number.
The bet: Philadelphia AJ Brown O 77.5 Rec Yds (-113 BetRivers)
Week 9 long shot: Another parlay
The total for this game is 45.5 points and I think it’s an over play. We should see plenty of chances for the Eagles, and while the Jags can easily put up a stinker – they will try and test the Eagles secondary. We shouldn’t just chalk up a shutout or 3-point effort for the Jaguars, despite the Eagles having enough firepower of their own to cover the number. Even with the run game in effect, the Eagles should take some chunks out – but ultimately this is a pass-first game for Philly as they have the exceptional matchups.
Speaking of which, we should expect both top talents to get in the end zone. This is a Kellen Moore offense, we continue to hope, as motion and routes help aid both Smith and Brown. Hurts has already proven to outplay some of these earlier play calls that leave little in the middle of the field, opting for deep throws down the sidelines. The good news here is that Jacksonville won’t be able to stop anyone at any part of the field, so long as the Eagles keep throwing. I like both Brown and Smith to score this week – with one coming on a huge X play down field.
The last play – optional but it’s a go for me – is heavy on the blowout. While Saquon Barkley should still be a relevant factor in this game, there’s no reason to keep running him while up 28 points in the fourth. The Birds tend to slow down when up, which means less throwing and more handoffs to backups. I like Kenny Gainwell to score in either a spell or closer capacity.
The bet: +1446 SGP on FanDuel .25u
Eytan Shander is a long time radio and TV personality in Philadelphia. In addition to his weekly column, you can currently listen and watch him on Fox29’s Good Day and other sports shows. He’s giving betting advice on OddsShopper. A lifetime Eagles fan, Eytan lives just outside the city with his wife.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow