In case you've been living under a rock for the last few days, you already know that the Eagles traded Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings for a first-round pick in 2017 and a fourth-round pick in 2018. The fourth-round pick can become a third- or second-round pick in 2018 based on the success of the Vikings.
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The conditions for the fourth-round pick in 2018 are as follows:
- The fourth-round pick becomes a third-round pick if the Vikings make it to the NFC Championship Game. The Eagles would also have to give back a seventh-round pick in this scenario.
- The Eagles will get a second-round pick if the Vikings win the Super Bowl.
Some have begun to ask, is it better for the Eagles if the Vikings are good in 2016, raising the chance that the Eagles' fourth-round pick in the deal becomes a three or a two?
No.
The best case for the Eagles is if the Vikings do not make the playoffs, which would give the Eagles a top 20 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Let's go through the other scenarios in which the fourth round pick would be upgraded to a two or a three.
The third-round pick upgrade scenario
If the Vikings get to the NFC Championship Game but do not win the Super Bowl, that first round pick would be somewhere in between 29th and 31st overall. Let's say, for example, Sleeves throws short of the sticks on a crucial 4th and 9, Minnesota loses in the Conference Championship Game, and their draft slot ends up being 29th overall. Using the draft value chart, the Eagles would be better served had the Vikings not made the playoffs at all.
| What the Eagles would get if no playoffs | What the Eagles would get in NFCCG scenario |
| 1st round pick, worst case 20th overall (850 points) | 1st round pick, best case 29th overall (640 points) |
| 4th round pick, roughly 160th overall (62 points) | 3rd round pick, 93rd overall (128 points) |
| They'd retain their 7th round pick, call it 224th overall (2 points) | |
| TOTAL OF 914 POINTS | TOTAL OF 768 POINTS |
In the above scenario, having the 20th overall pick, the Vikings would have the lowest draft spot among teams not making the playoffs. The worse they are, the better the pick, obviously.
The second-round pick upgrade scenario
In the event the Vikings somehow won the Super Bowl with Sam Bradford (lol), that scenario is better than the Conference Championship appearance, but still not good enough to root for the Vikings to make the playoffs.
| What the Eagles would get if no playoffs | What the Eagles would get in Super Bowl (lol) scenario |
| 1st round pick, worst case 20th overall (850 points) | 1st round pick, 32nd overall (590 points) |
| 4th round pick, roughly 160th overall (62 points) | 2nd round pick, 64th overall (270 points) |
| TOTAL OF 912 POINTS | TOTAL OF 860 POINTS |
In other words, the worse the Vikings do in 2016, the better it is for the Eagles. If the Vikings happen to make the playoffs and advance past the first round, then sure, the 20 of you who bought Sam Bradford jerseys can go ahead and dust them off for the remainder of the playoffs.
I may need a girlfriend.
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