December 23, 2022
It's been a long time since the Eagles have been underdogs heading into the week, but that's how they're projecting against the Cowboys on Saturday with Jalen Hurts sidelined.
At 13-1, just one more win clinches the NFC East title and the conference's No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Can Gardner Minshew step in on a short week and help the Eagles close this out, completing a season sweep of the Cowboys in the process?
Our writers, for the first time in a while also, are split.
Wrote Shamus Clancy:
I'm operating under the assumption that it'll be Gardner Minshew at QB for the Birds. I'll say he channels those 2006 Jeff Garcia vibes with the holiday win down in Texas. Two passing TDs from Minshew, 125 rushing yards from Miles Sanders, and an ungodly number of Christmas cookies for me are all in the cards for Saturday. [PhillyVoice]
And Kyle Neubeck:
I hope we can live in a world where Gardner Minshew plays inspired football, paying tribute to his former college coach Mike Leach, and leads the Eagles to a dramatic win over the Cowboys on Christmas Eve. My head tells me that Dallas has more to play for, is at home on a short week, and that the Eagles are missing their MVP candidate QB. A lot to overcome for the Eagles, who still have plenty of time to wrap up home field for the NFC playoffs. [PhillyVoice]
Let's take a look at what other analysts and writers are thinking...
• Inquirer.com: The Inquirer beats come out to a 2-1 edge for the Eagles, but all three have it being a close one. Wrote Josh Tolentino, who was the only one to go Cowboys:
Saturday presents an opportunity for the Eagles to clinch both the division and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. While the Week 16 showdown is being prominently elevated given the clinching circumstances, the reality is that the Eagles need to win just one of their final three games. Following their contest with the Cowboys on Christmas Eve, the Eagles return for a pair of home games against the Saints and Giants to close out the season. In all likelihood, they’ll have the conference’s top seed locked up at some point over the next couple of weeks. However, that clinching moment might not arrive this weekend.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 21 [The Inquirer, $]
• The Athletic: Vic Tafur is going Cowboys also, but for the Eagles to cover the spread.
This point spread started rocketing up Monday morning, even before the news of Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury came out. No one, it appears, has any faith in backup Gardner Minshew — who is 7-9 ATS as an underdog in his starts. Of course, the 13-1 Eagles have a much better supporting cast than the Jaguars did. And they haven’t officially ruled out Hurts, either.
Though the Cowboys had a historic collapse against the Jaguars and have registered just one sack in the past two weeks, they posted a pressure rate of 42.5 percent in those games (their season average is 42.4). Since entering the league in 2019, Minshew ranks 19th out of 45 qualified QBs in EPA/DB when pressured (500-plus total pass attempts since 2019 as the qualifier).
Hmmm, Cowboys win by 3.
The pick: Eagles +4.5 . [The Athletic, $]
• Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: It's a coin flip for Rosenthal, who sees ways where the Eagles can pull this one off. Still, he's going Dallas by a point, 27-26.
Gardner Minshew is a great backup, but his presence hurts the biggest game left on the NFC schedule. The Eagles have so many ways to win that they could still pull this off, making the five-point spread too much. Dallas' defense is giving up big plays lately -- biting hard on misdirection -- and could be pushed around by Philadelphia's offensive line. The Eagles' pass rush will make life very difficult on a reshuffled Cowboys line. It's a coin flip, with the 'Boys gettin. [NFL.com]
• Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Minshew isn't Hurts, and for Prisco, that hurts the Eagles too much.
The Eagles will likely be starting Gardner Minshew here for the injured Jalen Hurts. That changes the way they play offense. The Cowboys have looked bad the past two weeks on defense, but I think that changes here. They will get after Minshew with no threat of a quarterback run with him in the game. Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Eagles 25 [CBS Sports]
• Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: The Eagles can cover the spread at least, and have enough strength in the trenches to pull off an upset. The result will heavily depend on if they can take Micah Parsons out of the game again.
Assuming Gardner Minshew starts at quarterback here, look for the Eagles to lean on a quick passing game, screens, misdirection and the run game. Philly’s focus the first time these teams met was on not letting Micah Parsons wreck the game, and that figures to be the focus once again.
The Eagles’ offensive and defensive lines have been dominant for much of the season and specifically in the past few weeks. I think they have enough around Minshew to keep it close and potentially pull off the upset.
The pick: Eagles (+4.5) [The Ringer]
• ProFootballTalk: No one's feeling green over at PFT.
MDS’s take: I was going to pick the Cowboys even before the Jalen Hurts injury news broke, so I’m definitely picking the Cowboys now.
MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 21.
Florio’s take: Gardner Minshew is good enough to elevate the Eagles, if they weren’t playing a team like the Cowboys.
Florio’s pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 20. [PFT, NBC Sports]
• Bill Bender, The Sporting News: A bounce back here for Dallas because Dak Prescott has historically been steady against the Eagles.
The Cowboys have won the last four home meetings against the Eagles, and the last three have been in blowout fashion. How does Dallas bounce back after losing to Jacksonville – a game in which the Jaguars had 503 total yards. Philadelphia will face Dak Prescott instead of Cooper Rush this time – and he is 7-3 against the Eagles. With Jalen Hurts (shoulder) questionable, the Cowboys are the easier pick.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Eagles 28 [The Sporting News]
• Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: But a win for the Eagles here through defense and wanting to get one for Hurts.
The Eagles were caught looking a little ahead to this game in Dallas, but saved their win late in Chicago. The Cowboys also seemed to overlook their Week 14 road game in Jacksonville, losing badly in overtime on a Dak Prescott pick six. The Eagles now can win the division outright by just taking this game and get closer to locking up No. 1.
They will be careful, however, with Jalen Hurts and his hurting right shoulder, making it likely this matchup is Gardner Minshew vs. Prescott, while the first was Cooper Rush vs. Hurts.
With Hurts likely out, the Eagles will work to come through for him with Minshew. The offensive line and great weapons that should include tight end Dallas Goedert again are better than what Prescott has right now, and he's also not playing clean enough football. Philadelphia wins with defense while also motivated to put Micah Parsons in his place by winning a big one for Hurts.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24 [The Sporting News]
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