December 19, 2020
Following a surprising upset of the Saints at home last week, the Eagles will travel to Glendale, Arizona for a matchup with former No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. And while there are playoff implications for both teams on Sunday, the game will get a little added juice from the fact that Murray, a former Heisman winner at the University of Oklahoma was succeeded by Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, a Heisman finalist who was drafted in the second round of this past year's draft.
Hurts played well in his first NFL start last week, and while it was far from perfect, it was enough to help lead the Eagles to a win over the first-place Saints and snap their four-game losing streak. It was also enough to bring some excitement back to Eagles football and provided arguably the most "watchable" game of the season from a viewing perspective.
This week, the Birds will face a different kind of test against the Cardinals in a game that features two quarterbacks with similar styles — both can absolutely kill you on the ground if you're not careful, and even then they can give you fits. It was a run-first philosophy that worked so well for Doug Pederson last week, but will the Eagles coach stick with that gameplan against Kliff Kingsbury and his high-scoring offense?
Currently, the Eagles are six-point underdogs, according to TheLines.com, but unlike last week, there are a lot more people picking the Birds to win this one, perhaps because they believe in Hurts. Either way, we'll find out on Sunday which former Sooner will come away smiling. In the meantime, we've already broken down the injuries for both sides, provided our own predictions, and rounded up some from the local and national media. We've also provided picks for every game this week.
Now, as we do every weekend, let's take a look at some numbers to watch in this one, in the form of our five over/unders...
[A quick reminder for those new to our over/unders: Unless it's explicitly stated, these are my own over/unders based on how I think the players/teams will perform on Sunday — and the advice that follows is where I would put my money if I had to. They are not all actual numbers you can bet on, but we'll let you know when they are.]
That's the current total being offered over at FanDuel, according to TheLines.com, and it's actually the highest total of the four sports books they have listed, with the other three having it either 48.5 or 49. But we're going to stick with the higher number here because we're of the belief that the over is the play regardless of whether it's at 48.5 or 49.5.
The Eagles might not be the highest-scoring team in the NFL — in fact, they're much closer to the bottom of the league at 21.3 PPG — but their offense did look arguably the best it has all season last week in Jalen Hurts' first NFL start. And that came against the NFL's best defense. The Cardinals are pretty good defensively, but they're not the Saints. The biggest cause for concern is that the Eagles suffered yet another injury along the offensive line (more on that in a bit), but Hurts' legs and ability to get the ball out quickly should help mitigate some of that.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 10th in the NFL in points scored and should have a chance to put up at least their season average (27.5) if not more against an Eagles defense that will be without three starters in the secondary.
OVER.
Last week, I was pretty much spot on with Jalen Hurts' passing yards, but I greatly underestimated how successful he would be with his legs. We won't make that mistake again. This week, however, the only Hurts line we'll be looking at will be his total yards, and we're setting it just slightly higher than what he finished with in his debut (273).
Hurts nearly broke the record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in his first NFL start, which was set by Lamar Jackson. More importantly, he was able to avoid any big negative rushing plays, and for the first time since Week 2 of the season, the offensive line didn't give up a sack, which was due in large parts to Hurts' mobility and escapability.
But don't think Eagles fans were the only ones who saw what Hurts can do on the ground. You better believe that the Cardinals will be prepared for that, likely dropping back into zone or having a linebacker spy him the entire game. However they decide to defend against Hurts, its not like the Cardinals won't have had practice. Going up against Kyler Murray every week in practice will only help their defense.
Hurts' deficiencies as a passer (some due simply to the fact that he's still a rookie) were masked last week by his ability to create big plays on the ground. That's going to be tougher this week, and the bet here is that he finishes closer to where we thought he would in the opener (around 50-60 yards on the ground). Can he make up that difference through the air? Unlike last week, a game in which the Eagles were mostly playing from ahead, the Birds could find themselves playing catchup, meaning more passing attempts for Hurts. You might think that's a good sign he hits the over, but quantity and quality are two different things.
UNDER.
The Eagles, for the most part, have struggled against rushing quarterbacks this season. And while Murray is certainly that, he can also throw the ball — and has one of the most dangerous wideouts in the NFL at his disposal. The Eagles will be without a slew of starters in the secondary, so that could lead to a big day through the air for Murray. But it could also cause breakdowns in the middle of the field that leave things wide open for a big Murray run.
Remember those two big runs the Eagles allowed to Daniel Jones this season? Imagine that, but with Kyler Murray tucking the ball and running. Would it be that shocking to see him get all (or at least most) of these yards on one big play?
OVER.
No Darius Slay. No Rodney McLeod. No Avonte Maddox.
OVER. (And I might still take the over even if all three were healthy.)
As we mentioned above, the Eagles offensive line put together its first clean sheet since Week 2, basically three months ago. A lot of that had to do with Jalen Hurts escaping would-be sackers, but the team also got some solid play from what was their 12th offensive line combo in their first 13 games. Well, guess what? This week we'll see their 13th combo in 14 games. And they'll be facing a Cardinals team coming off their best defensive games of the season in which they recorded eight sacks, with five of them (and three forced fumbles) coming from Temple product Haason Reddick.
The Cardinals are going to throw all kinds of looks at the rookie — and they're already averaging close to three sacks per game this season. Couple that with the fact that they're probably better prepared than most to contain a mobile quarterback without allowing him to escape the pocket, and Hurts could find himself running for his life on Sunday.
OVER.
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