November 13, 2021
On Sunday, the Eagles have what on paper, at least a few weeks ago, looked like one of the few non-NFC East games they could win this season. But a week after the Broncos shocked the NFL with their dominating win over the playoff bound Cowboys, Denver and its stout defense looks a bit more intimidating.
With the offense trending in the right direction, is there a chance the Eagles have a little more success against the Broncos than they did in their narrow loss to another AFC West team, the Chargers, last week?
There are some interesting patterns the Eagles will be hoping to continue — or completely change — heading into Week 10. We've already taken a look at some matchups to watch, broken down the injuries on both sides and offered up our own predictions — as well as rounded up some others' picks — ahead of Sunday's Eagles vs. Broncos matchup. Now, as we do each week, let's run through some numbers to keep an eye on in the form of our five over/unders...
[A quick reminder for those new to our over/unders: Unless explicitly stated otherwise, these are my own numbers based on how I think the players/teams will perform on Sunday — and the advice that follows is where I would put my money if I had to.]
That's the current total at several sports books, and it's pretty simple to figure out how they arrived at it — the Eagles and Broncos combine to average just over 45 points per game. Denver's defense has been pretty good this season and it's hard to really predict how the altitude change will impact the Eagles traveling from the East Coast.
Still, only three NFL teams have scored more than the Eagles over Philly's last three games and the point total seems extremely low. It would be really, really boring to be rooting for this game to hit the under so for the sake of my own sanity — and perhaps with optimism — we'll predict the over here.
OVER.
Hurts has actually averaged 30.3 passes per game, but there is a trend in recent weeks that seems to be serving the Eagles well. The Birds sophomore signal-caller has thrown the ball only 31 times combined in their last two games, first a win over the Lions and then a last-second loss to the Chargers. And it would be hard not to argue that the Philly offense has looked better in those two weeks than the ones that preceded them.
In his previous six games, the Eagles have trailed and Hurts has padded his stats with garbage-time completions. Philly is obviously hoping it is not in that position again in Week 10. The team has also found its groove on the ground — even without Miles Sanders. However, this one will be interesting, as the Broncos defense allows less than 100 yards per game on the ground and is one of the top teams in football at stopping the run.
Will the Eagles be able to stick with their ground and pound plan for a third straight week? Or will Hurts be forced to throw it more, like he did earlier in the season? The thinking here is that Hurts will need to do a little bit more in this one, and he'll throw somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-30 passes.
OVER.
Something is going to have to give in Week 10 as the Eagles new run-first offense — which has collected 135, 236 and 176 yards in each of its last three games respectively will go up against a Broncos defense that has allowed over 100 yards in only five of nine games, and over 150 in one (against a Browns team with a better run game than Philly).
Nick Sirianni will most definitely want to establish the run in this one, and Hurts will be able to continue to show his prowess as a dual-threat quarterback, but the team could find itself struggling to dominate like it did in recent weeks. The air attack may wind up being the avenue the Eagles are forced to rely on if they aren't able to get Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell rolling early. Aspiring for 150 again is a high hope against Denver.
UNDER.
The Eagles have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete an absurdly high number of passes this season, with five of their nine opposing QBs going above an 80% completion percentage. That is... not good. Here's more on the ugly trend from Jimmy Kempski:
A look at their numbers against the Eagles:
QB
Comp-Att
Yards (YPA)
TD-INT
QB rating
Dak Prescott
21-26 (80.8%)
238 (9.2)
3-0
143.3
Patrick Mahomes
24-30 (80.0%)
278 (9.3)
5-1
131.0
Tom Brady
34-42 (81.0%)
297 (7.1)
2-1
102.1
Derek Carr
31-34 (91.2%)
323 (9.5)
2-1
113.6
Justin Herbert
32-38 (84.2%)
356 (9.4)
2-0
123.2
TOTAL
142-170 (83.5%)
1492 (8.8)
14-3
123.3
The Broncos' Teddy Bridgewater isn't as good as any of those five quarterbacks, but he does complete a high percentage of passes. In 2021, he has completed 70.2 percent of his passes, which is no fluke, since he completed 69.1 percent of his passes in 2020, and 67.9 percent of his passes in 2019, all with different teams.
Since 2019, Bridgewater has the highest completion percentage in the NFL (minimum 300 pass attempts) among active quarterbacks.
Jonathan Gannon hopes I am wrong — his job could depend on it — but for whatever reason, the Eagles can't get in between the football and a wide receiver this season. Bridgewater should complete a lot of passes Sunday.
OVER.
The Eagles have possessed the ball more than their opponents just twice in nine games this season and it's a clear factor in their struggles on both sides of the ball this season. Not only are they unable to give their offense opportunities to score, they often hang the defense — which is the weaker unit this season — out to dry.
Only one NFL team has had less time of possession this season, the Seahawks, and it just so happens that the Broncos lead all NFL teams but one in time spent with the football, averaging 32:18 per game with it in contrast to the Eagles, who keep the ball for just 27:07.
Clearly this is yet another reason for the Eagles to do everything they can to run the football this week. Here's a look at their TOP this season.
| Week | TOP | Result |
| 1 | 31:02 | Win |
| 2 | 25:06 | Loss |
| 3 | 25:02 | Loss |
| 4 | 29:08 | Loss |
| 5 | 24:57 | Win |
| 6 | 20:04 | Loss |
| 7 | 27:29 | Loss |
| 8 | 35:00 | Win |
| 9 | 26:23 | Loss |
Only three times have they eclipsed 28 minutes. We're not optimistic.
UNDER.
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