September 30, 2015
Joaquin strengthened into the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said, although forecast models did not agree on whether the storm will make landfall in the United States.
Joaquin strengthened from a tropical storm into a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour and was located about 215 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas, the center said.
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'We could have a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds off the Carolina coastline this weekend," said meteorologist John Bolaris. "After this weekend, there is more uncertainty about where it goes after that."
Whether it turns west and hits land, or veers east into the Atlantic, remains to be seen.
Right now, Bolaris said, the weather models diverge as much as 500 miles on the path of the storm.
More certain is that the Joaquin's effects will be felt on the New Jersey and Delaware coastlines over the weekend, Bolaris said. A strong easterly flow will generate high waves, with coastal flooding and beach erosion resulting.
Heavy rain will move in from south to north throughout the region on Saturday. Not that you would know, as rains are expected through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas on Wednesday night and Thursday, the center said.
The hurricane could raise water levels up to 4 feet above normal tide, create dangerous waves and bring up to 20 inches of rain over San Salvador and Rum Cay in the Bahamas, the hurricane center said.
Joaquin-generated swells in the Bahamas will begin to affect parts of the U.S. southeastern coast by Thursday, according to the center. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, it said.
The central Bahamas is under a hurricane warning and the northwestern Bahamas is under a hurricane watch, the center said.
Hurricanes range in severity from Category 1 to the strongest Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson wind intensity scale.
