December 13, 2019
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
(Games 307 & 308 the sports betting screen)
The Line: Eagles minus-5.5/Total: 40
What is the line telling you: The sports books in Vegas opened this line up with Philadelphia being a large six-point road favorite over Washington with a combined over/under set at 40, and immediately sharp money started hitting the screen on the home underdog Redskins. The Vegas spread dropped to as low as Eagles minus-4, before it was met with some resistance in the market, which has pushed this line back up to 5.5/6 depending on where you shop.
There's no way you look to bet the Eagles here with all the injuries this team has sustained, laying almost a touchdown against a squad that gave the Eagles trouble when they were 100% healthy. It looks to be a bad investment. Washington has actually been playing the better football over the last three weeks, with wins over the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers, with a small 5-point loss in Green Bay. The Eagles have had trouble outperforming the market all year, going 4-9 against-the-spread, while the Redskins have gone 6-7 against the closing Vegas number. As of right now, almost 70% of all tickets placed offshore and in Vegas are on the Eagles, so if you're a little patient, wait for this line to fully mature with a possibility of grabbing 7 points on Washington closer to kickoff.
Bottom line: Bet the Redskins plus-7 on Sunday.
(Games 313 & 314 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Titans minus-3/Total: 51
What is the line telling you: Oddmakers offshore opened this line with the red-hot Titans laying 2.5 at home against the Texans, and immediately we witnessed some sharp money kiss this line up to that key number of 3 on the home favorite. However, the bigger move in the market has been on the total. The line skyrocketed 4 points off the soft opener and now sits aggressively at 51 juiced, or 51.5 depending on where you shop. Breaking the game down, all the offensive and defensive metrics over recent play have you convinced that Tennessee is the right team to invest in, but anytime something looks too good to be true, it’s time to pause and reflect. When you read between the lines, ask yourself how is a team like the Titans, which has won 6 of its last 7 by an average of 11 points per game, only a 3-point favorite at home over a Texans squad that just lost to a Broncos team that has only 5 wins all year by double digits? It's not easy to bet against the Titans, who are averaging almost two full yards per play more, a yard more per rushing attempt and 14 more points per game over recent play (last 3 games). It's even tougher when the Titans points differential is 8 times greater than the Texans, even though they have the same 8-5 record. When you look at their opponents, Houston has played teams with a combined 13 more wins, and eight teams that rank in the top-10 in overall offense, five teams that rank in the top-10 in defense, and seven that rank in the top-10 in adjusted sack rate.
Bottom line: Bet the Texans plus-3.5 and the over 51.
(Games 331 & 332 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Vikings minus-1.5/Total: 45
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers in Vegas had originally implemented the 9-4 Minnesota Vikings as 3-point road favorites over the 5-8 Chargers, but it didn't take long for the market to quickly correct itself as sharp money started to hit the screen and shape this line. As of 1:00 PM Friday, the Vikings were 1.5-point favorites.
In my opinion, the wrong team is laying points in this spot, and don't be surprised to see Chargers be the favorites by game time. If you go through Minnesota's schedule, you quickly recognize that the Vikings haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year and this week they're going up against a healthy Chargers team, that, if you remember, had a win total set by Vegas before the season at 9.5. So, don't let the 5-8 record fool you. The Chargers still have a plus 38-point differential on the year, regardless of all the bad breaks and injuries they suffered early in the season. They are a team that's currently undervalued to close out the season. At the current line of -1.5 the books are begging for Vikings money and last we checked they're definitely getting it as over 70% of the early tickets punched are on Mike Zimmer’s team.
Bottom line: It's a great spot for the home dog here plus-1.5 with the Vikings having two huge games on deck with the Packers and Bears. Bet the Chargers plus-1.5.
The Philly Godfather was 4-0 last week and has gone 20-0 against-the-spread (ATS) over the last three NFL Sundays.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
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