Best bets: Take advantage of unknowns before James Harden's Sixers' debut

The Sixers are about to look completely different once James Harden plays his first game – likely this Friday night. Interestingly, Harden’s arrival to the Sixers hasn’t negatively impacted Joel Embiid’s MVP race – it’s actually helped. Time is running out for some value on betting Embiid, especially for MVP, but we’ve found decent value elsewhere.

As for the team itself, the Sixers are still a smart play to win the East and the NBA Championship because of the high-upside and still unknown variable of Harden. There is a misconception that Embiid and Harden will struggle on the floor together, but those concerns won’t last long. The greater issues are depth and lack of 3-point shooting overall, but even there is a solid betting angle.

Here are some great plays this week:

Joel Embiid MVP Futures 

Via FanDuel

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This is it. Time is basically out for any bettor looking for a positive return on Embiid winning this award. The books are removing Steph Curry from the conversation by more than doubling his odds from when we ran our last column. Even Giannis took enough of a dip to consider him borderline-longshot. That’s the most surprising thing beyond Embiid continuing to move closer to +100, that Giannis is getting a lot of public love that didn’t transfer to the books.

The one remaining foe in all of this is last year’s MVP. But there isn’t anything new or different that Nikola Jokic is doing this year – outside of not having his top two options around him. Sound familiar? We can certainly argue that Embiid never had Simmons this year, and the constant disappearances of Tobias Harris and Seth Curry took out the other option. Embiid played solo out there enough to mitigate Jokic – as the books clearly agree.

Joel Embiid NBA scoring champ

Via FanDuel

This is a sneaky play that can get you north of a 2-to-1 return on Embiid leading the league in scoring. James may not have enough games under his belt – the qualifier is 58 played games – as crazy as that sounds. The Lakers will need him to make a push to the playoffs, but more importantly need him healthy for the playoffs. The Sixers won’t have to rest Embiid as he looks fantastic this year, healthy and in shape. So, that leaves Giannis. The one thing working against the Bucks star is having so many other options around him. Milwaukee could easily rely on two to three other guys – especially down the stretch – to alleviate some of the pressure on Giannis. Embiid may have that with Harden here to an extent, but Georges Niang isn’t taking shots or points away from Embiid – like a Holiday/Middleton/other shooter can for Giannis.

I love this play because people will stay away from Embiid with Harden here, but that may boost the big man’s scoring.

NBA title

Via FanDuel

The Sixers gained some value since before the All-Star Break which is surprising with the arrival of James Harden – at least on paper. It’s still a great time to jump in on Philadelphia to win the NBA Finals. The books are as uncertain as the betting public about how Harden will fit here, but we have seen what Embiid has done – with far less talented players surrounding him.

All of these teams gained some value except the Warriors who moved up 50 points. The Warriors have been exceptional with a barely-returned Klay Thompson, and are still without the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in Draymond Green. They should get center Johnathan Wiseman back by the playoffs, making them a tough out no matter who they play.

The value is on the Sixers because they have the best return combined with legit talent to win the whole thing. The Bucks and Warriors are the better bets for teams to actually win, mainly because they are deeper than Philly and take way more threes.

Eastern conference title

Via FanDuel

The futures markets can be fickle at times but it’s all about noticing a break, then pouncing on it. In this case the Sixers significantly dropped once they made the trade for Harden, but in a week’s time of not having him on the floor, the Sixers gained 140 points of value. What exactly changed? 

The Heat haven’t done anything different nor made any major splashes, they gained 50 points of value. The Nets dropped a bunch of games in a row and looked like a G-League team even with Kyrie Irving on the floor – they gained 60 points of value. The Bucks lost 20 points, which isn’t a lot by any means, nor is it enough to point at them as the reason why the Sixers fell to +380.

This seems like more of a mistake – that happens with books – than it is a sharp movement on the line. No other team had any significant movement, which would indicate a lot of money on them, so there’s no true explanation for how the Sixers went from +240 to +380 – outside of some recent judgement on a team that is far from complete.

The Sixers odds to win the East are highly playable right now – especially once Harden starts playing.

Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow

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