July 20, 2015
It's a rare -- and, quite often, fleeting -- feeling to write something positive about the Phillies these days.
There have been very few ups in this season full of downs. Even when it seemed like something, anything, was about to go right for the Phillies, it was often followed by that same something going quite wrong.
There was Aaron Harang's hot start, followed by his rapid regression. There was Freddy Galvis' month-plus of being among the most consistent hitters in the game, followed by a month in which the young shortstop hit just .120 and as twice as many strikeouts as he did hits. And what about Chad Billingsley's feel-good story after returning from back-to-back below surgeries? He went to the disabled list, came back, and is now back on the DL with more elbow pain.
Stop me if you've had enough...
What about that mysterious stretch of seven wins in eight games back in mid-May? It took the Phillies their next 30 games to win another seven.
Even Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez, the two position players who are most likely to be integral parts of the future, are not immune. Hernandez, as well as he's played, means the end of the Chase Utley era, much to the dismay* of some fans. And Franco, who has lived up to expectations since his arrival on May 15, had to leave Monday's win over the Rays due to some discomfort in his right elbow.
On Tuesday, the Phillies and their fans will have one more thing to get excited about, and that's the debut of 2014 first-round pick Aaron Nola.
Even though he's not necessarily projected to be a top-of-the-rotation type of arm -- there's nothing saying he can't grow into that role -- fans have been pining to see him pitch at Citizens Bank Park for much of the season. And when he steps onto the mound in South Philadelphia, there will be more fans than usual on hand to watch the righty out of LSU make his first start.
At least there better be.
20,148 fans at tonight's game. For Nola's debut tomorrow #Phillies estimate they've sold 25,000-28,000 tickets & expect more w/walk-up sales
— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) July 21, 2015
There hasn't been a better reason all year to catch a game. Plus, after all "bitching and moaning" about Nola not being promoted -- the same incessant clamoring that seemed so outrageous* it caused Amaro to speak down to fans in a way that bordered on condescension -- it wouldn't be a good look for fans if the 22-year-old was debuting in front of a ballpark of empty blue seats.
So please, enjoy Tuesday night's game and your first glimpse at what could be the future of the Phillies rotation, or a least a major piece of it. Because if this Phillies season has taught us anything, that warm, comforting -- yet exciting -- feeling that comes with watching a top prospect make his debut isn't likely to last.
You better believe the Phillies know that.
Update from Phillies: Aaron Nola jerseys and shirts will arrive at Majestic Clubhouse Store in time for tomorrow's game
— Matt Breen (@matt_breen) July 20, 2015
After all, the trade deadline is only 10 days away...
Here's a look at what's being said about Aaron Nola:
John Weber, the Phillies vice president of sales and ticket operations, said the team has sold about 3,000 extra tickets for Tuesday night when rookie pitcher Aaron Nola will take the mound in his Major League debut.
Weber said he expects the number to climb even higher with walk-up sales tomorrow.
“We’ve been averaging about 20,000 to 22,000 (during the team's current home stand) and we will probably get over 25,000 Tuesday,” he said. [bizjournals.com]
But here's what Nola is not: An ace. He's not going to step into Cole Hamels' role if the tortured lefty mercifully gets traded next week. He's not going to be the next Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee.
More likely, Nola is Jamie Moyer — minus 30 years and plus 8-10 mph on the fastball. Scouting reports generally agree Nola will peak as a third starter in a good rotation. The upside is that he's got the brains and stuff to forge a lengthy Major League career. The downside is he doesn't possess the killer strikeout pitch that will lead to him having his named etched onto the Cy Young Award. [metro.us]
While Owens' prospect status relies more on projection, Nola is pretty close to a sure thing. He does not have one standout offering, instead throwing three pitches that grade out as plus or better with firm control. I think the changeup in particular has a chance to be a bit more. Unlike his big-armed compatriots, he does not offer a big-strikeout upside, but should miss enough bats to hold his own. He also should be better than average in WHIP and potentially ERA. [ESPN In$sider]
Having already seen Nola pitch this season and having talked to numerous scouts who have witnessed the Phillies' 2014 first-round draft pick at different points, I think it is already safe to say this kid is worth the price of admission.
"He does not have the best stuff of all the pitching prospects I've seen, but he might end up being the most reliable," a National League scout said. "He's going to throw strikes with three pitches, he's going to compete his butt off and he's going to eat innings."
That is usually a winning trifecta at every level. It definitely worked well for Nola during his fast climb from being the seventh overall draft pick 13 months ago to the big-league mound he will step upon Tuesday. [philly.com]
