September 19, 2015
On Sunday, the Eagles will host the Cowboys in their home opener for the first time in 41 years.
On that day, in Week 2 of the 1974 season, Roman Gabriel and the Birds beat Roger Staubach's Dallas team, 13-10, on Monday Night Football despite being out-gained 385 yards to 165 yards. This time around, there figures to be a lot more scoring.
Last season, both teams ranked in the Top 5 in the NFL in scoring, while their defenses were much more pedestrian -- the Cowboys were 15th in points allowed and the Eagles were 22nd.
But that was last season.
DeMarco Murray is now lining up against the Cowboys; Dez Bryant is out with a foot injury. Those two players accounted for all six touchdowns (three each) Dallas scored against the Eagles last season. And, somehow, the Cowboys are not the team with the most offseason turnover.
Even with all the changes, this is still Eagles-Cowboys. But for all the hype this matchup gets, there haven't been a whole lot of good games in recent years. Of their last eight meetings, only two have been decided by 10 points or less, and the average margin of victory over that span is almost two touchdowns (13.75 points) per game. The road team has also won eight of the last 10 meetings, including all four since Chip Kelly's arrival in Philadelphia.
The Eagles will look to end their home woes against Tony Romo and the Cowboys -- they've lost five of their last six home games against Dallas -- as they try to avoid falling to 0-2 for the first time since 2007.
Here are 5 over/under lines for the NFC East showdown, which kicks off at 4:25 p.m. from the Linc.
For the second straight week, that's the line being offered at topbet.eu. Last week, despite my belief that the Eagles and Falcons would easily surpass that number, they combined for just 50 points. This week, I think I'm going to have to take the under, if for no other reason than my prediction -- posted yesterday -- has the final score at 33-17 for a total of just 50 points.
My reasoning behind that number? No Dez Bryant for the Cowboys and Joseph Randle will struggle against the Eagles front seven, who didn't have their best game against the Falcons.
UNDER.
Will the Eagles get off to another slow start in Week 2?
On Monday night, they found themselves down 17 points at the break, and that was one of the main reasons they came away with a loss. The deficit was in large part due to a pair of Julio Jones TDs in the second quarter. Hopefully, the absence of Dez Bryant will ease the burden on the secondary early and prevent the Cowboys from building a giant lead.
The other reason they struggled early was inconsistent play from the offense -- receivers running wrong routes, running backs losing 12 yards on one play and dropping screen passes. That wasn't totally unexpected considering all the new pieces and a quarterback that was playing his first regular season game in almost two years. I'd be surprised to see the same early rust from the offense. In fact, I think the Eagles will be up by a touchdown at the half.
OVER.
In his Eagles debut, Murray carried just eight times for a whopping nine yards. He did account for two of the Eagles three touchdowns, however, so it wasn't all bad.
However, his 1.13 yards per carry was the worst single-game performance of his career. And you can expect to see him do better against his former team. Last season, when he led the NFL in rushing, Murray averaged 4.7 yards per carry and averaged a career high 5.2 YPC the season before last. In fact, 4.1 YPC is his lowest single-season average in his first four years.
I can't guarantee that the carries will be there for Murray. He led the team with eight last week, but Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews combined for eight carries as well -- and combined for 10 receptions on 13 targets, compared to four receptions on five targets for Murray. But if the Eagles stick with the running game a little longer than they did against Atlanta, I think Murray bounces back with a nice game. After all, he was only one big gain away from having a much prettier YPC number.
OVER.
Against the Falcons, Sam Bradford completed 36 of his 52 passes, but only half of them went to wide receivers. And of those 18 completions, 10 were to Jordan Matthews. Here's a look at the full breakdown, by position.
| POS | PLAYER | TARGETS | REC | YDS |
| WR | Jordan Matthews | 13 | 10 | 102 |
| WR | Riley Cooper | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| WR | Miles Austin | 3 | 2 | 22 |
| WR | Josh Huff | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| WR | Nelson Agholor | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| RB | Darren Sproles | 9 | 7 | 76 |
| RB | Ryan Mathews | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| RB | DeMarco Murray | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 8 | 3 | 46 |
| TE | Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| WR | TOTAL | 25 | 18 | 173 |
| RB | TOTAL | 18 | 14 | 111 |
| TE | TOTAL | 9 | 4 | 52 |
Considering how many times he threw the ball and how many different players caught passes, it's interesting to see just how the numbers break down. It's not a total surprise to see Bradford and Matthews click right away in Week 1, as the two looked to be on the same page throughout training camp and the preseason. Furthermore, there's nothing more comforting to a quarterback in a new system than a guy like Matthews in the slot. It's a lot more difficult to hit a guy on an out route than it is on a short crossing pattern. It's just a shorter through.
Against the Cowboys, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradford against target Matthews a lot, but I could also see an uptick in targets for Zach Ertz, who missed much of the preseason with a groin strain. Couple that with the fact that I don't see Bradford throwing the ball 50-plus times again, and I think the other wide receivers -- the ones not named Jordan Matthews, will struggle to top the numbers, at least in terms of receptions, that they put up Monday night. I'm going to take the under here.
UNDER.
The Eagles sacked Romo seven times in their two meetings a year ago, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total sacks allowed all season by the Dallas line (29). Against a Falcons unit that looked laughable in the preseason, the Eagles defense, which was tied for second in the NFL with 49 sacks last season, brought Matt Ryan down just once.
I can't imagine another letdown performance, even against a challenging Cowboys line. Then again, only 15 of their 49 sacks last season came at home, a surprisingly low number. But facing a Dallas team without Dez Bryant and question marks about their backfield, it's hard to gauge just how many opportunities the Eagles will have.
Being that it's the weekend and my Hurricanes are beating up on Nebraska, I'm in a good mood.
OVER (but not by much).
