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June 17, 2016

10 reasons NFC East teams will be dumpster fires this season: The complete series

Eagles NFL
061716JerryJones Mark Tenally/AP

Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder debate who would have been fired as owner more times, if that were possible.

All week long, we took a brutal look at each of the teams in the NFC East, in detail. On Monday we began with Dallas Cowboys, and then turned our attention to the New York Giants on Tuesday, the Washington Redskins on Wednesday, and the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday. As a reminder, we did not talk about the positives of any of them, because, well, that's no fun. They were 100 percent vitriolic.

In case you missed any of them, here's the series in full:

COWBOYS

1) Tony Romo is 36, and dying.

Remember when Tony Romo was a plucky young up-and-comer? No? Me neither. He's 36 years old now, and the fourth oldest projected starting quarterback in the NFL:

Age rank Player Team Birthday Age 
 OldestTom Brady Patriots 8/3/1977 38 
 2Drew Brees Saints 1/15/1979 37 
 3Carson Palmer Cardinals 12/27/1979 36 
 4Tony Romo Cowboys 4/21/1980 36 
 5Eli Manning Giants 1/3/1981 35 


Romo has also had like twelve back surgeries (estimated) and like nine clavicle jawns.


Prior to the draft, Jerry Jones said that Tony Romo will be the Cowboys' QB for next 4-5 years and that they'd make all draft decisions accordingly.

Except...

  1. The Cowboys reportedly would have drafted Carson Wentz fourth overall had the Rams and Eagles not traded up to the top two spots.
  2. And then they tried to trade up from the second round back into the first to draft Paxton Lynch, but failed.
  3. And then they would have drafted Connor Cook, but the Raiders traded up ahead of them in the fourth round and took their guy. Strike three.
  4. And then they drafted Dak Prescott in the fourth round.

But, yeah... Jerry Jones' draft strategy was formulated around the idea that Romo will play another four-five years. Mmhmm.

2) It's not even as if the Cowboys were good when Romo played last season.

If Tony Romo didn't get hurt last year, the Cowboys would have gone 16-0 during the regular season, and then went on to win the Super Bowl. Or so I've been told by Cowboys fans.

The reality is that the Cowboys stunk without Romo, but it's not as if Romo was good last year and played a positive role in the rare wins they collected when he was able to go. Romo started four games last season:

• Giants: Romo played well and the Cowboys won, but the NFL admitted that the officials gift-wrapped that win for Dallas. The Cowboys really should have been 3-13 last year, not even 4-12.

• Eagles: Brandon Weeden entered this game in relief of Romo with 5:24 left in the third quarter, and the Cowboys' offense had put up just six points at that point in the game.

• Dolphins: Romo was 18 of 28 for 227 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs, as the Cowboys beat a trash Miami team.

• Panthers: Romo was 11 of 21 for 106 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, a QB rating of 27.2, and was knocked out for the season with another injury.

So, sure... If you take Romo's highly flawed 3-1 record last year and extrapolate it over 16 games, they would have gone 12-4! Yay.

That's not to say that Romo's uninspiring play in 2015 will be predictive of his 2016 season. If he's healthy, he can certainly be the good quarterback he's been for most of his career. But let's stop with this notion that the Cowboys were going anywhere last year if Romo stayed healthy.

3) The Cowboys didn't learn their lesson about going into the season with a crappy backup QB.

In 2015, the Cowboys went into their season with Brandon Weeden as their backup. Literally everyone except for Jerry Jones kinda knew that was a bad idea. Oh, and this guy:


In 2016, barring some other Hail Mary signing or trade, it'll either be Kellen Moore or Prescott.

Prescott had a good short passing game at Mississippi State, and running ability. However, he had major accuracy issues in the intermediate to deep passing game, which also happens to be where the Cowboys like to operate. He probably has a long way to go before he can play any meaningful role in the NFL.

So that likely leaves Moore as the primary backup, whose arm strength is demonstrated here:

In three games last season, Moore threw 4 TDs and 6 INTs. The Cowboys lost all three.

In fairness to Moore, he did have a 58.7 percent completion percentage in his first three games with the Cowboys. In his first three games with the Patriots, Tom Brady's completion percentage was 52.8%. Brady has won four Super Bowls. By Cowboys fan logic, Moore is sure to win five.

What do you think of your backup QB situation, Jerry?


4) The Cowboys' pass rush is still garbage.

During training camp last offseason, Greg Hardy funded a plane with an accompanying trash talk banner to fly over Lincoln Financial Field during one of the Eagles' practices. This is what it said.

Jimmy Kempski/for PhillyVoice


Sacks didn't come (or in Hardy banner vernacular, #SACKSDIDNTCOME), and Hardy is not one of dem boyz anymore. To be determined if he'll fly another banner over the Linc this year.


The Cowboys' sack totals and NFL rankings the last three seasons:

Year Sacks NFL Rank 
 201234 20 
 201334 25 
 201428 28 
 201531 25 


But the worst part is that the Cowboys don't have a single player on their roster with at least 10 career regular season sacks. Not one. Below is every player on the current roster with at least 0.5 career regular season sacks:

Player Career regular season sacks 
 Orlando Scandrick9.5 
 Rolando McClain9.5 
 Tyrone Crawford
 Demarcus Lawrence
 Jack Crawford
 Cedric Thornton
 Kyle Wilbur3.5 
 Sean Lee2.5 
 Terrell McClain
 Benson Mayowa
 Andrew Gachkar
 Anthony Hitchens
 Casey Walker
 Brandon Carr
 Terrance Mitchell
 David Irving0.5 
 TOTAL62.5 


First of all, LOL at CB Orlando Scandrick leading the team in career sacks.


But also, as you can see, the Cowboys' entire team has 62.5 career sacks. There were 19 players who were active during the 2015 season who have more.

Oh, and the Cowboys' leading sacker a year ago was Demarcus Lawrence, who had eight. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Lawrence is facing a four-game suspension to start the season, as is Randy Gregory, who was basically invisible as a rookie.

5) The Cowboys can't stop the run.

Here is where the Cowboys ranked in various run defense stats in 2015:

 2015 Cowboys defenseStat Rank 
 Rush yards allowed/game120.9 T-22 
 Yards per carry4.2 19 
 Rush TDs allowed16 28 
 Rushing first downs allowed113 31 
 % of rushes resulting in first down24.5 29 


In 2014, the Cowboys were able to run the ball extremely effectively with DeMarco Murray. They stayed on schedule on early downs, and were able to convert 3rd and manageable situations. That kept their crappy defense off the field, and they rode that formula to a 12-win season. In 2015, part of the reason their record flip-flopped from 12-4 to 4-12 was that they couldn't keep opposing offenses from essentially doing that same exact thing to them.

The Cowboys added Cedric Thornton, who is a good run stopper along the defensive line, but that won't be enough.

6) The Cowboys' offensive line's health is unsustainable.

While the Cowboys were unlucky to lose Tony Romo for big chunks of time last season, they had the fortune of a rarity in the NFL -- an offensive line that stayed intact (injury-wise) all season long.

 PlayerSnaps played 
 Tyron Smith1051 
 Travis Frederick1051 
 Zack Martin1051 
 Doug Free1051 
 La'el Collins734 


Four of their five starters played the entire season, while the fifth, La'el Collins, was an in-season addition to the starting lineup, hence his lower number of snaps played. That just doesn't happen often in the NFL.

In 2013, the Eagles were fortunate to have good health along their OL, which was an enormous reason for their success that season. In 2014, they experienced some injuries up front, and it cost them games.

Credit the Cowboys offensive linemen for showing durability, but their luck is going to run out there eventually, and their questionable OL depth could be tested.

6b) Also, Sean Lee.

This also feels like an appropriate spot to note that the Cowboys' best player on defense, Sean Lee, had a rare healthy season in 2015. Well, healthy by Sean Lee standards, who is literally made of dandelions.


7) Oh yeah, and that OL remains absurdly overrated.

Getting back to the offensive line, unquestionably, the Cowboys have a good one, particularly in the run game, where it is excellent. In fact, when we published our Preseason All-NFC East team, three of the OL spots were occupied by Cowboys players, although a number of folks made the fair argument that the Giants' Weston Richburg may be better than Travis Frederick.

BUT...

In 2015, the Cowboys gave up a sack on 5.87 percent of the pass plays, which was 17th in the NFL. If your follow-up argument is that that number would have somehow been lower with Romo at QB, note that in 2014, the Cowboys gave up a sack on 7.07 percent of their pass plays, which was 21st in the NFL.

The Cowboys have a great run blocking unit. In pass protection, they're average. They also commit a lot of penalties. In 2015, the Cowboys had 57 offensive holding or false start penalties. That was the third-most in the NFL. The league average per team was 45.9.

I mean, the entire offensive line stayed healthy in 2015, and the Cowboys still only won four games.

8) Jason Witten is old, too.

Jason Witten was a great tight end for a long time, but his best days are behind him. Once upon a time, he and Tony Romo used to bring their girlfriends to Cabo instead of getting ready for a playoff game. Nowadays, Witten spends his free time feeding ducks in the park. Probably.


Witten is the third-oldest projected starting tight end in the NFL, and then there's a wide gap thereafter:

Age rank Player Team Age 
 OldestAntonio Gates Chargers 35 
 2 Ben WatsonRavens 35 
 3Jason Witten Cowboys 34 


After Witten, there are four players who are 31 years old. Witten's numbers are very clearly in decline:

Year Rec Yards YPC TD 
 2012110 1039 9.4 
 201373 851 11.7 
 201464 703 11.0 
 201577 713 9.3 


In 2015, Witten had 36 first downs on 77 receptions. In other words, only 46.8% of his catches went for first downs, the lowest total of his career.

Witten hasn't had a reception of 40+ yards in the last four years, and in 2015, he had just four receptions of 20+ yards. 29 tight ends had more.

By the way, Is 2013 second round pick Gavin Escobar ever going to do anything?

9) Does anyone on that defense make plays?

The Cowboys had 11 takeaways last season. Awful. By comparison, the Jets had 10 takeaways after Week 2 last season. In fact, the Cowboys' 11 takeaways tied for the fewest in NFL history.

There are two ways one could look at that. On the one hand, you could come to the conclusion that their takeaway total has nowhere to go but up. That's probably true. On the other hand, it could serve as an indicator that the Cowboys grossly lack players on the defensive side of the ball capable of making splash plays.

10) There's a hell of a lot of pressure on a 20-year old kid.

I've long been on record that running back Ezekiel Elliott would not have been good value at pick No. 8 before the Eagles traded up to pick No. 2. At pick No. 4, where Dallas landed Elliott, that is atrocious value. 

Elliott is really, really good, as is any player who is being drafted in the top 10. This is in no way a slight against Elliott, rather, it's about the value of drafting the position he plays at the fourth-overall pick.

Running backs take a pounding in the NFL. Their bodies wear down, and even the good ones rarely make it beyond the age of 30. But the bigger issue I have with the pick is that there are an inordinate number of great running backs set to enter the NFL Draft next year. It would be much better value to get a marginally less talented back in the second round in 2017 than Elliott at fourth overall.

Anyway, the rebuttal I've gotten from Cowboys fans to that argument is something to the effect of this:


Yes, congrats. You got Zeke, and again, Zeke is really good. Most people (self included) think Zeke is the most likely Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016. Cool, right?

Zeke is also going to have a boatload of pressure on him. In 2014, as noted above, the Cowboys rode DeMarco Murray into the ground on their way to a 12-win season. By running the ball effectively, as noted above, Dallas kept their crappy defense off the field and took pressure off of Romo. The latter will be of heightened importance in 2016, as Romo will be returning from injury. In other words, there's an argument to be made that Zeke is the second most important player on the team in terms of the Cowboys' success in 2016, after Romo.

To repeat, he's 20Good luck, young Zeke.


GIANTS

1) What reason have the Giants given anyone to think they'll be good?

Over the last three seasons, the Giants have won a grand total of 19 games. Only seven teams in the NFL have won fewer games over that span.

Team 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL 
 Broncos13 12 12 37 
 Patriots12 12 12 36 
 Seahawks13 12 10 35 
 Panthers12 15 34 
 Cardinals10 11 13 34 
 Bengals11 10 12 33 
 Chiefs11 11 31 
 Packers12 10 30 
 Colts11 11 30 
 Steelers11 10 29 
 Eagles10 10 27 
 Saints11 25 
 49ers12 25 
 Lions11 25 
 Cowboys12 24 
 Vikings11 23 
 Bills23 
 Ravens10 23 
 Jets10 22 
 Dolphins22 
 Chargers22 
 Rams20 
 Texans20 
 Bears19 
 Giants19 
 Falcons18 
 Redskins16 
 Raiders14 
 Browns14 
 Buccaneers12 
 Jaguars12 
 Titans12 


The Giants are also one of only nine teams with a negative point differential in each of the last three years:

 Team2013 2014 2015 TOTAL 
 Seahawks186 140 146 472 
 Patriots106 155 150 411 
 Broncos207 128 59 394 
 Chiefs125 72 118 315 
 Bengals125 21 140 286 
 Panthers125 -35 192 282 
 Cardinals55 11 176 242 
 Steelers68 104 181 
 Packers-11 138 45 172 
 Eagles60 74 -53 81 
 Colts55 89 -75 69 
 Bills-49 54 20 25 
 Cowboys115 -99 23 
 Saints110 -23 -68 19 
 Lions19 39 -42 16 
 Ravens-32 107 -73 
 Chargers48 -78 -30 
 Vikings-89 -18 63 -44 
 49ers134 -34 -149 -49 
 Texans-152 65 26 -61 
 Dolphins-18 15 -79 -82 
 Rams-16 -30 -50 -96 
 Giants-89 -20 -22 -131 
 Falcons-90 -36 -6 -132 
 Jets-97 -118 73 -142 
 Bears-33 -123 -62 -218 
 Redskins-144 -137 -272 
 Browns-98 -38 -154 -290 
 Buccaneers-101 -133 -75 -309 
 Titans-19 -184 -124 -327 
 Raiders-131 -199 -40 -370 
 Jaguars-202 -163 -72 -437 


For some reason, there is optimism surrounding this team. Why? Because they overpaid a few guys in free agency? I don't get it.

2) The Giants can't run the ball

Here are the Giants' rushing totals over the last three years:

 YearAttempts Yards YPC 
 2013381 1332 3.50 
 2014449 1603 3.57 
 2015403 1609 3.99 
 TOTAL1233 4544 3.69 


Is it bad if you can't break four yards per carry in three consecutive years? Asking for a friend.

Here's the Giants' run game in gif form:

Of course, we'd be unfair to the Giants' running backs if we put the blame solely on them for the Giants' rushing woes. The RG-RT tandem of John Jerry and Marshall Newhouse are in the "worst RG-RT combo in the NFL" conversation, if anyone is actually having that conversation somewhere.

Also, for the sake of piling on, Ereck Flowers is a RT playing LT.

3) The Giants can't stop the run either.

With four games remaining last season, the Giants, Redskins, and Eagles were all 5-7. The Giants, obviously, were very much in the hunt in the atrocious NFC East. And then their run defense failed them.

 OpponentRush Yards YPC TD 
 Dolphins22 128 5.8 
 Panthers29 171 5.9 
 Vikings40 218 5.4 
 Eagles26 120 4.6 
 TOTAL117 637 5.4 


In 2015, the Giants allowed 4.4 yards per carry, which was 24th in the NFL. In 2014, they allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which was dead last. In other words, the Giants lose in the trenches at the point of attack both on offense and defense, which might help explain why they're among the bottom quarter of the league in wins the last three years.

Here's the Giants' run defense in gif form:

4) The Giants are even worse at stopping the pass than they are at stopping the run.

Here is where the Giants ranked in various pass defense stats in 2015:

 2015 Giants defenseStat Rank 
 Pass yards allowed/game298.9 32 
 Yards per pass attempt7.7 25 
 Pass TDs allowed31 T-25 
 Opponent completion percentage66.3% 27 
 Passing first downs allowed236 31 
 Percentage of passes resulting in first down37.0% 27 
 Receptions of 20+ yards allowed62 30 
 Sacks23 30 
 Opposing QB rating95.9 21 


So the Giants are awful at stopping the run AND the pass? That leads us to...

5) Somehow, Steve Spagnuolo is still a defensive coordinator in the NFL.

After the Giants hired Spagnuolo to be their defensive coordinator in 2007, they promptly won the Super Bowl with the help of a defensive front that included Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants defense followed up its Super Bowl year with another strong season in 2008 and Spagnuolo was snapped up by the Rams to be their head coach.

Since then, Spagnuolo's defenses have been brutally bad. Here is where they have ranked in his stops as a defensive coordinator or head coach: 

 Steve SpagnuoloOverall Run Pass Points 
 2007 Giants (DC)11 17 
 2008 Giants (DC)
 2009 Rams (HC)29 27 25 31 
 2010 Rams (HC)19 17 19 12 
 2011 Rams (HC)22 31 26 
 2012 Saints (DC)32 32 31 31 
 2015 Giants (DC)32 24 32 30 


As the chart above shows, Spagnuolo's defenses have finished dead last in the NFL in each of his last two seasons as a defensive coordinator. In fact, the 2012 Saints and 2015 Giants defenses rank worst and third-worst respectively in NFL history for yards allowed in a season.

Year Yards allowed 
 2012 Saints7042 
 1981 Colts6793 
 2015 Giants6725 


And yet, Spags was disappointed that he wasn't named the Giants' head coach this offseason. WHAT?!?

Obviously, it's not just scheme that led to Spagnuolo's atrocious defenses. There have to be bad players contributing to that mess. But consider this -- Spagnuolo's 2012 Saints, which, again, were the worst defense in NFL history, improved to fourth in the NFL the next season under the awful Rob Ryan.

Here's what I call Rob Ryan math:


6) The Giants' safeties have extreme inexperience.

A big part of the Giants' troubles in the passing game has been the play of their safeties. Second year player Landon Collins is good in run support, but struggles in coverage, as was expected when he was drafted by the Giants in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Opposite Collins, the starter will be one of the following warm bodies -- Cooper Taylor, Darian Thompson, Mykkele Thompson, or Nat Berhe. 

The number of career starts for all of those guys? 0.

In fact, barring a signing, or converting a cornerback to play safety, whoever starts opposite Collins will have played no more than 56 career snaps, or less than a typical full game. Collins aside, here are all the players listed as safeties on the Giants' roster, and their career snap totals:

Giants safeties Career snaps played 
 Cooper Taylor56 
Nat Berhe 32 
 Darian Thompson
 Mykkele Thompson
 Bennett Jackson
 Justin Currie
 Andrew Adams
 TOTAL88 


6a) The Giants' linebackers stink.

Just a yearly reminder.

7) The Giants' pass rush stunk in 2015.

The other major reason for the Giants' terrible pass defense was their pass rush. The Giants faced the fourth-most pass attempts in the NFL last season, and they only registered 23 sacks, which was good for 30th in the NFL.

Here's a gif of the Giants' woeful pass rush from 2014, when Jason Pierre-Paul still had two hands:

There was a lot of that going on in 2015 as well.

As a result, the Giants panicked in free agency, when they grossly overpaid a trio of defensive linemen.

Olivier Vernon, DE: Vernon was a good pass rusher in Miami, but certainly not among the best in the game. Over his four-year career, he has averaged just over seven sacks and one forced fumble per season

 Olivier VernonTackles Sacks FF FR 
 201232 3.5 
 201357 11.5 
 201446 6.5 
 201561 7.5 
 64 games196 29 0 


According to overthecap.com, he is now the highest paid 4-3 DE in the NFL, on a five-year deal worth $85 million. His cap numbers the next five years will be $13mm, $16mm, $17mm, $19.5mm, and $19.5mm. Panic move, plain and simple.

Damon Harrison, NT: Harrison is a massive 6'4, 350-pound run stuffer. He is a not a threat to get after the quarterback on passing downs, and thus a rotational player, albeit a very effective one at what he does. Harrison is now absurdly rich after signing a five-year, $46.2 million deal. That makes him the sixth-highest paid 4-3 DT in a league full of 4-3 DT impact players who can play the run AND get after the quarterback. Harrison does not do the latter.

Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: And finally, the Giants signed JPP to a one-year deal worth $10 million. Pierre-Paul played in eight games last year and had one sack. It is also worth noting once again that Pierre-Paul only has one hand.

Add it all up, and the Giants handed out contracts worth a total of $141.2 million to three defensive linemen who combined for nine sacks last season. And five hands.

Meanwhile, they lost two-handed defensive lineman Robert Ayers, who led the Giants with 9.5 sacks a year ago, or 41.3 percent of the Giants' sacks.

8) Odell Beckham Jr. is awesome, but he's all the Giants have in the passing game

If you take Odell Beckham Jr. out of the equation, the Giants don't have anyone on their roster who had at least 500 receiving yards a year ago. Victor Cruz, of course, missed the entire season, although it's not as if he's anything close to the player he used to be anyway.

Cruz was amazing in his breakout season in 2011, but as his career has continued, his numbers have declined every season:

Year (Games) Rec Yards YPC 1st downs TD 
 2011 (16)82 1536 18.7 59 
 2012 (16)86 1092 12.7 52 10 
 2013 (14)73 998 13.7 45 
 2014 (6)23 337 14.7 13 
 2015 (0)0.0 


Some doubt that Cruz will even be ready to play when the season begins this year.

Meanwhile, the Giants drafted Sterling Shepard in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft. While I liked Shepard as a prospect and think the Giants got good value with him in the second round, it's more likely than not that he will not make a splash his rookie season.

Since 2000, there were 69 receivers drafted in the second round. Their average receiving yardage totals in their rookie seasons? 366.

Opposing defenses are going to load up on OBJ and dare the Giants to beat them with someone else. I'm not sure they have a guy who can consistently make them pay.

9) The Giants were +7 in turnover differential, and still only won 6 games

The following is a list of teams that were at least +7 in turnover differential last season, and their records:

 TeamTurnover differential Record 
 Panthers+20 15-1 
 Chiefs+14 11-5 
 Bengals+11 12-4 
 Cardinals+9 13-3 
 Giants+7 6-10 
 Seahawks+7 10-6 
 Patriots+7 12-4 


If you omit the Giants, the teams that had a turnover differential of at least +7 had a combined record of 73-23 (.760).

The 2015 Giants were +43 in points off of turnovers, which was fifth in the NFL. They're like that spoiled kid that has every opportunity but ends up living at home with mom and dad until they're 40.

In 2013 and 2014, the Giants were a combined -17. It's a fairly decent bet they won't be +7 again in 2016.

10) Eli was good, and the Giants still can't win.

Sticking with the same theme as the one presented in point No. 9, over the last two seasons, Eli Manning had the best and fourth-best seasons of his career, in terms of QB rating. Over those two seasons, the Giants were still only 12-20. How do you feel about the rest of your roster, Eli?


REDSKINS

1) Who exactly did the Redskins beat last year?

Congratulations to the Washington Redskins for winning the terrible NFC East in 2015. Now... Who exactly did they beat that was any good? Well, the Redskins played four teams last season with winning records. Here's how those games went:

 OpponentRedskins score Opponent score Result 
 Jets20 34 
 Patriots10 27 
 Panthers16 44 
 Packers18 35 
 TOTAL64 140 0-4 


In other words, they went 0-4, lost each game by at least two touchdowns, and were -76 in point differential.

In fact, quarterback Kirk Cousins has 11 career wins. Here they are in chronological order:

Year  OpponentRecord 
 2012Browns 5-11 
 2014Titans 2-14 
 2015Rams 7-9 
 2015Eagles 7-9 
 2015Buccaneers 6-10 
 2015Saints 7-9 
 2015Giants 6-10 
 2015Bears 6-10 
 2015Bills 8-8 
 2015Eagles 7-9 
 2015Cowboys 4-12 
 2011-2015COMBINED RECORD 65-111 (.369)


Can anyone tell me what all of those opponents have in common?


And really, it's not even as if the Redskins even took care of business against all their crappy opponents. In 2015, they lost to trash teams like the 6-10 Dolphins, the 6-10 Giants, and the 4-12 Cowboys.

Cousins will have to show that he's not Nick Foles 2.0.

2) Speaking of opponents with winning records...

As the NFC East champs a year ago, the Redskins have to face the NFC South and NFC West champs. Those two teams (the Panthers and Cardinals) are arguably the two best teams in the NFC. Here's who the NFC East teams have to face in those two floating games:

Redskins Eagles Giants Cowboys 
 Panthers, Cardinals  Falcons, Seahawks Saints, Rams  Buccaneers, 49ers 


In 2015, the Redskins faced just three teams with winning records. In 2016, they'll face six teams that had winning records the previous season.

3) The 2015 Redskins defense was sucky and lucky

Here is where the Redskins ranked last season in some basic stats:

2015 Redskins defenseStatNFL Rank
 Points allowed per game23.7 17th
Yards/game allowed380.628th
Yards/play allowed6.0328th
First downs/game allowed20.622nd
Pass yards/game25825th
Pass yards/attempt7.827th
% of pass attempts resulting in 1st downs35.7%20th
Opposing passer rating96.122nd
Rush yards/game allowed122.626th
Rush yards/attempt4.8130th
% of rushes resulting in 1st downs25.40%31st
Interceptions11T-21st
Fumble recoveries161st

Note that the Redskins were generally awful across the board, but were first in fumble recoveries. That, of course, helped keep their points per game down. Credit the Redskins for forcing fumbles, although... it doesn't hurt when you have an incredibly careless team like the Eagles in your division just giving you the football.

Anyway, the point here is that the Redskins' defense isn't recovering 16 fumbles again in 2016.

4) The Redskins' rushing attack is a huge concern

In 2015, the Redskins gained 3.65 yards per carry. That was good for 30th in the NFL. It would appear that second-year player Matt Jones is going to be the Redskins' lead back in 2016. Jones averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per carry in 2015, while an already over-the-hill Alfred Morris ran for 3.7. He also fumbled five times in just 144 carries.

The low YPC average is nothing new for Jones. Over his career at Florida, Jones ran for 4.8 yards per carry, which is good by NFL standards, but not so much in college. In fact, of the 18 running backs selected in the 2015 NFL Draft, Jones had the second-lowest YPC average in the group during the 2014 NCAA season. The one guy below him, Karlos Williams, ran for 8.0 YPC in 2013.

Player School YPC 
 Melvin GordonWisconsin 7.5 
 Tevin ColemanIndiana 7.5 
 Todd GurleyGeorgia 7.4 
 Duke JohnsonMiami 6.8 
 Josh RobinsonMississippi State 6.3 
 Ameer AbdullahNebraska 6.1 
 Jeremy LangfordMichigan State 5.5 
 David JohnsonNorthern Iowa 5.4 
 Javorius AllenUSC 5.4 
 Jay AjayiBoise State 5.3 
 Cameron Artis-PayneAuburn 5.3 
 David CobbMinnesota 5.2 
 Marcus MurphyMissouri 5.2 
 T.J. YeldonAlabama 5.0 
 Kenny HilliardLSU 5.0 
 Mike DavisSouth Carolina 4.9 
 Matt JonesFlorida 4.9 
 Karlos WilliamsFlorida State 4.6 


I thought the Redskins overrated Jones when they took him in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft, and I think they continue to overrate him now by trusting him to be their lead back.

5) The Redskins are due for a free agent disaster

Remember the good old days when the Redskins made dumb trades and/or wildly overspent in free agency, and it would hilariously blow up in their faces?

Jeff George, Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, Mark Carrier, Jeremiah Trotter, Renaldo Wynn, Randy Thomas, Marcus Washington, Brandon Lloyd, Adam Archuleta, Antwan Randle El, Fred Smoot, Jason Taylor, Donovan McNabb, and of course… Albert Haynesworth. And that's really just to name a few.

Just because it's never not funny:

Ah, memories. 

Giants co-owner John Mara put a temporary end to the Redskins' spending ways when he successfully screwed up their salary cap for years and the Redskins have been fairly prudent spenders since.

That was until this offseason when the Carolina Panthers rescinded their franchise tag on Josh Norman, and the Redskins pounced. The Skins handed Norman a five-year, $75 million deal that made him the highest-paid corner in the NFL.

There's no question Norman is good. There's also no question he benefited by playing behind an elite front seven in Carolina. Will he be the same player in a defense that was ranked 28th in the NFL a season ago?

6) The Redskins are particularly bad defensively in the middle of the field

There's a good reason why the Redskins selected ILB/safety Su'a Cravens in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft, and it's because their personnel in the middle of the field stinks. None of their three main inside linebackers -- Perry Riley, Will Compton, and Mason Foster -- would start for most teams, and they are all liabilities in the passing game.

Meanwhile, on the back end, soon-to-be 33-year-old DeAngelo Hall is making a full-time move to safety, and free agent acquisition David Bruton has eight career starts in seven NFL seasons.

And then there's the defensive line. Who exactly is the NT? Is it Kedric Golston? Bleh.

7) The Redskins' interior OL is very shaky

At RG, the Redskins should be in good hands with Brandon Scherff, who played well enough as a rookie in 2015 to warrant optimism for 2016. The Redskins are also set on the edge, with Trent Williams and Morgan Moses. 

However, the LG and center spots are a mess. The center spot is particularly bad, with Kory Lichtensteiger being the default option, while the starting LG spot seems to be a competition between Spencer Long, Arie Kouandjio, and a banged up Shawn Lauvao.

In other words, the LG spot is up for grabs and the center spot is currently occupied by a player who was downright bad last season. At least the Cowboys and Giants have no interior pass rush. So there's that. But against teams with legitimate interior defensive line talent, the Redskins LG-C combo (whoever it ends up being) could be human turnstile:


8) Jordan Reed is great, but can he stay healthy?

In 2015, Jordan Reed broke out in a huge way, when he caught 87 passes for 952 yards and 11 TDs. The Redskins then went ahead and gave Reed a shiny new five-year, $46.75 million contract, which made him the third-highest paid tight end in the NFL. He's arguably as important to the Redskins' offense as any of their skill position players.

But...

He has yet to play a full season in the NFL. He missed seven games in 2013, five games in 2014, and two games in 2015.

9) There hasn't been an NFC East repeat champion since 2004

The last time a team repeated as NFC East division winners was when the Eagles did it in 2004. In each of the last 11 seasons, we've seen the previous year's division champion dethroned.

 YearNFC East Champion 
 2004Eagles 
 2005Giants 
 2006Eagles 
 2007Cowboys 
 2008Giants 
 2009Cowboys 
 2010Eagles 
 2011Giants 
 2012Redskins 
 2013Eagles 
 2014Cowboys 
 2015Redskins 
 2016Probably not the Redskins 


That may feel a little bit like trivia, and not necessarily an indicator of what will happen going forward. However, the reason why the division has been so volatile over the last decade-plus is because none of the teams are good up and down their rosters. You'll see an occasional aberration like the 2014 Cowboys that went 12-4, or those weird Giants teams that squeaked into the playoffs and then went on lucky improbable Super Bowl runs, but never sustained success.

And that's no different this year. The Redskins aren't good, and there's an outstanding chance that one of the other not-that-good teams will dethrone them once again in 2016.

10) And as always, let me check to see if Dan Snyder is still the owner.

Yep.


EAGLES

1) Sam Bradford is the Eagles' quarterback

On the whole last season, Sam Bradford was very clearly a below average quarterback. Here is where his numbers ranked among other quarterbacks:

 Sam BradfordStat Rank 
 QB rating86.4 26 
 YPA7.0 25 
 TD passes19 T-22 
 Completion percentage65.0% 11 


He also threw the seventh-most interceptions.

The only stat above that is somewhat favorable was Bradford's completion percentage, which was a little above average, but only because the vast majority of his completions were short throws. The typical Bradford completion is noted here:

(That's a forward pass, to be clear, so at least DeMarco fell forward).

Of course, many Bradford supporters (most notably his agent) pointed to Bradford's "last seven games," which will go down as some sort of magical time in American history in which diseases ceased to exist, it was 81 degrees and sunny literally everywhere, and we had world peace. 

In reality, Sam Bradford's last seven games, while certainly better than his first seven games, were not impressive. We even published a children's book about it. Bradford put up inflated stats in garbage time blowout losses to the Cardinals and Redskins, followed by a meaningless Week 17 game against the third-worst defense in NFL history.

The Eagles may have themselves a future at quarterback with the addition of Carson Wentz. That's to be determined. But in 2016, a guy entering his seventh season in the NFL with 25 career wins will be the Eagles' quarterback. Make all the excuses you want for him, but he's "middle of the road" (MOTR), at best.

2) Ryan Mathews is the Eagles' running back

When Ryan Mathews got playing time last season, he was very good. He carried the ball 106 times for 539 yards (5.1 YPC) and 6 TDs, which made him the most productive runner on the team. 

Unfortunately, he's never not hurt. Mathews has only played all 16 games once in his career, and even when he wasn't missing games, he was often playing with some kind of injury. From 2010-2015, Mathews appeared on the injury report a staggering 53 times.


He's also not a great fit for the offense. Doug Pederson has said that he wants to be able to move his backs around to create mismatches for opposing defenses in the passing game. Unfortunately, Mathews can't catch.

This offseason, both Mathews and DeMarco Murray were on the trading block. The Eagles were going to trade one and keep the other. When they traded Murray, Mathews became the lead back, out of necessity. Behind him, they have Darren Sproles, who is more "offensive weapon" than traditional running back, rookie Wendell Smallwood, who still has to learn how to pass protect, and Kenjon Barner, who for some reason is beloved by many in the fan base despite never having done jack in the NFL since he was drafted three years ago.

The Eagles don't necessarily want Mathews long term, and yet they're kinda screwed in 2016 without him in the short term. In that sense, Mathews is kind of like the Sam Bradford of running backs.

3) The Eagles' wide receivers aren't good enough

I believe this video kind of says it all.


The Eagles led the league in drops last season, and a few of their receivers have struggled with them so far this offseason in OTAs and minicamp.

Jordan Matthews is a very good player who is likely to make a boatload of catches over a long NFL career. However, his coaches to this point in his career have not shown that they want him playing on the outside. Should his career continue along that path, he can be a premier slot receiver, which of course isn't the worst thing, but may be his ceiling. 

After Matthews, it's ugly. Nelson Agholor had a disappointing rookie season, and now he's dealing with very serious legal issues stemming from accusations of sexual assault in a Philly strip club. Meanwhile, the Eagles signed a receiver the Giants no longer wanted in Rueben Randle, Josh Huff can't catch the football, and Chris Givens has been on a downward trajectory since a decent rookie season.

4) The offensive line remains a concern

After Chip Kelly essentially ignored the offensive line for the entirety of his tenure in Philly, the Eagles were left with an offensive line a season ago that lacked depth, and was the oldest in the NFL. We covered it at length in our "Eagles dumpster fire" series a year ago.

This offseason, the Eagles took a major step in the right direction by trying to fix the offensive line. They signed starting RG Brandon Brooks and versatile interior lineman Stefen Wisniewski in free agency, and then spent two of their first four draft picks on OT/OG/C Isaac Seumalo and OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai.

Unquestionably, the Eagles will head into the 2016 season in better shape along their offensive line than they did in 2015. Still, there are concerns:

  1. Jason Peters turned 34 years old in January, and his play fell off significantly last season. He is no longer looked at as a dominant left tackle. Rather, the more realistic hope is that he can make it through the season without any serious injuries and provide good play, not great.
  2. The LG spot is still an obvious hole.
  3. Jason Kelce would be the first to say he has to play a lot better in 2016 than he did in 2015.
  4. While Brandon Brooks will almost certainly be an upgrade at RG, he still has to assimilate into a new offensive scheme playing in between two new teammates.

5) So to recap...

Offensively, the Eagles have varying levels of concern at QB, RB, WR, and their OL. But their tight ends are good! So there's that.

6) Special teams will likely experience a dropoff

For all of his faults, one of the great things Chip Kelly did in his tenure with the Eagles was bring back great special teams play. In 2014 and 2015, the Eagles scored 10 special teams touchdowns, an absolutely ridiculous total.

Kelly's fast-paced practices emphasized special teams. While I cannot confirm this for sure, there's almost no way there was another team in the NFL that practiced special teams drills more than the Eagles did when Kelly was the head coach.

Under Doug Pederson, the Eagles' practices are more instructive, and thus, slower. There are benefits and drawbacks to that approach, and one of the drawbacks is that the Eagles are paying far less attention to special teams in practice these days.

The Eagles still have standout special teams players like Sproles, Chris Maragos, Bryan Braman, and Donnie Jones, but it's hard to imagine them maintaining the level of success they had under Kelly. Special teams coach Dave Fipp will have to make the most of his limited time coaching up his units. For no reason whatsoever, here's Fipp if his eyes rapidly changed colors.

7) Lack of depth at key spots

#JimmyConfession: You know how we writers like to do 53-man roster projections in freaking May? I can't speak for other writers, but I do them because they're easy and they do well traffic-wise. They're good posts to do when you can't think of other stuff to write, but they're nearly useless until you start to get deep into training camp.

The one thing they are good for this early in the offseason process is getting a good feel for how deep the team is. If you have 56 or 57 players you'd like to keep on the roster, but making those final three or four cuts is difficult, there's a good chance the team is deep. 

Conversely, if you can quickly pencil in 47 or 48 guys who you definitely want and then you're picking the final five or six guys just because you have to, then your depth probably isn't very good. In doing my 53-man roster projection so far this offseason, picking those final five guys was like being a 1980's Wheel of Fortune contestant picking crappy prizes after solving a puzzle.


We already mentioned the Eagles' lack of depth at running back and wide receiver, but they also have significant depth concerns at defensive tackle, linebacker, and safety.

8) The Eagles hate possessing the football

Over the last five years, the Eagles have turned the ball over 161 times, which is by far the most in the NFL:

Team 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 TOTAL
Eagles 31 36 19 37 38 161
Jets 24 24 29 37 34 148
Buccaneers 28 33 21 23 40 145
Raiders 24 29 31 26 30 140
Giants 21 28 44 21 24 138
Cardinals 24 17 31 34 32 138
Redskins 22 31 34 14 35 136
Lions 24 20 34 33 23 134
Titans 33 26 25 28 22 134
Bills 19 23 27 34 30 133
Broncos 31 20 26 25 30 132
Steelers 28 21 24 30 28 131
Colts 30 31 14 27 29 131
Jaguars 28 26 27 26 23 130
Cowboys 33 25 20 29 21 128
Browns 30 23 29 26 19 127
Bears 21 29 23 24 29 126
Chargers 24 23 21 26 28 122
Bengals 17 26 30 26 22 121
Falcons 30 23 28 18 21 120
Dolphins 19 23 26 26 25 119
Vikings 17 20 32 23 26 118
Ravens 28 20 29 16 24 117
Chiefs 15 17 18 37 28 115
Rams 21 27 21 22 23 114
Saints 20 30 19 24 19 112
Texans 20 22 31 17 20 110
Panthers 19 23 19 22 23 106
Packers 17 13 25 16 24 95
Seahawks 16 14 19 18 23 90
49ers 17 22 18 16 10 83
Patriots 14 13 20 16 17 80


Over that span, they have more than double the number of turnovers as the Patriots. Both Andy Reid and Chip Kelly were offenders of terrible ball security. Can Doug Pederson turn that around?

9) The Eagles have a lot of guys at corner, but no studs

Leodis McKelvin played his best ball under Jim Schwartz in 2014, but the rest of his career has been underwhelming for a former 11th overall draft pick. It appears he'll be the "No. 1 corner" for the Eagles this season. Meanwhile, Eric Rowe played well as a rookie last season, best has yet to stand out so far this offseason and has mostly been running with the second team defense. 

Otherwise, there's Nolan Carroll, who was a decent starter a year ago, Ron Brooks, a vet with three career starts, and a handful of rookies and second-year players the Eagles hope will step up.

While it could certainly be worse, the Eagles CB situation is not ideal.

10) Doug Pederson himself is a concern

When the Eagles were trying to hire a new head coach, they wanted to hire Ben McAdoo, who took the Giants' head job instead. They even had a gift basket with Tastykakes and all kinds of other Philly-themed stuff ready and waiting for McAdoo on the second floor of the NovaCare Complex, like this:

Just because Pederson wasn't the Eagles' first choice doesn't mean he won't be successful. But like any neophyte coach, Pederson has a lot to prove. 


Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski

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