10 Eagles predictions heading into the 2024 NFL season

With the start of the Philadelphia Eagles' season just hours away, let's make predictions about how things will go in 2024. Spoiler: I'm cautiously optimistic about this team.

1) Jalen Hurts will have a rebound season

After an MVP-caliber season in 2022, Hurts took a step back in 2023. One could rightfully blame the scheme and the coaching staff for the offense's shortcomings, and they'd be right to do so, but Hurts also didn't look like the same player he was the previous season. Hurts and the Eagles had no answers for the blitz, and the offense fizzled down the stretch, despite fielding such a wealth of talent. 

In my opinion, Hurts had the best training camp of his career this summer. Hell, he didn't throw an INT in the Eagles' first 15 (!) practices, before he was finally victimized by Darius Slay on the last day of camp. He made good decisions, but also connected on his fair share of plays deep down the field. 

His timing with A.J. Brown on slants and outs was impeccable, and his rapport with DeVonta Smith grew, in my opinion. But just as importantly, he looked fast as a runner. Down the stretch in 2023, Hurts did not look the same using his legs as he did in 2021 and 2022, as he was hampered by an assortment of lower body injuries. He'll have his legs as a weapon again in 2024, at least early in the season.

The unknown is how quickly he'll master Kellen Moore's offense, and whether things will click when the bullets are flying for real, but I'd be very surprised if he looked anything like he did to close the 2023 season.

2) Saquon Barkley will be an upgrade, but he won't be Christian McCaffrey

The Eagles' signing of Barkley has drawn some comparisons to the 49ers' trade for McCaffrey during the 2022 season.

McCaffrey previously played for the Carolina Panthers, where he was a rare star player on an otherwise terrible team. Opposing defenses keyed on him, and if they could slow McCaffrey down, it was pretty easy to stop those Panthers' offenses. When he joined an already potent 49ers offense, opposing defenses could no longer key on him the way they did in Carolina, and he was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2023.

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Similarly, Barkley has been stuck in an atrocious Giants offense for the entirety of his career, and in Philly he'll join an already potent offense with a pair of star receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He'll also be running behind the best offensive line he has ever played with, by far. 

The parallels to McCaffrey do make some sense, but they're also unrealistic. McCaffrey ran for 1459 yards on 5.4 yards per carry last season. He also caught 67 passes for 564 yards. He amassed 2023 total yards from scrimmage, and 21 total TDs. If anyone is expecting anything close to that kind of production out of Barkley, they're highly likely to be disappointed. I mean, come on.

What Barkley will be is an upgrade over guys like DeAndre Swift and Miles Sanders, who both had Pro Bowl seasons in Philly, but can't do everything that Barkley can do. If Barkley touches the ball, I dunno, 275-300 times this season (a big "if"), he will be well worth the money the Eagles shelled out at a position they haven't often prioritized with premium resources.

3) The new-look offense under Kellen Moore will cause more uncertainty for opposing defenses

Nick Sirianni's offense was a well-oiled machine in 2022 but it became predictable in 2023, and opposing defenses had answers for it. After begrudgingly answering questions about ways to improve an offense that even he called "stale" all offseason, it was funny to me that the first question Sirianni got from a Brazilian reporter during his media availability on Thursday was about pre-snap motion.

"I think one thing that is an advantage is that no one really knows what we're going to do," Sirianni said. "But I'm really looking forward to the things that Kellen brings to this offense and to this football team."

If you give Moore talent, his offenses will produce, as evidenced by his three top-6 finishes in points scored in four seasons in Dallas. 

4) Vic Fangio will run the defense like an adult, but his scheme won't be revelatory

For years the Eagles have wanted to run a Vic Fangio-style defense, and finally they landed the man himself this offseason. But are they too late? Has the league already been oversaturated with Fangio disciples, thus making his scheme more mainstream and easy to face? As noted in a recent mailbag, by my count, five "branches" off the Fangio tree — plus Fangio himself — ran NFL defenses last season. Here's how those guys fared in defensive DVOA in 2023:

• Joe Woods, Saints: 15th
• Vic Fangio, Dolphins: 19th
• Brandon Staley, Chargers: 26th
• Joe Barry, Packers: 27th
• Sean Desai, Eagles: 29th
• Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals: 32nd

Fangio is at least the author of his scheme, whereas the others are knockoffs, so perhaps there's some value in that. But it'll also be interesting to see if Fangio's scheme can evolve and confuse opposing quarterbacks in new, innovative ways.

5) Jalen Carter will be a beast; Jordan Davis... eh

Carter is coming off a rookie season in which he finished second in Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, and he lived in the backfield all throughout training camp. He is going to continue to be a force in the the interior of the Eagles' defense. The question is whether he can do it for 17 games (and beyond), or if the quiet finish to his rookie season will become a trend. In Carter's case, the switch from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia — and the ensuing asinine mid-season scheme change — didn't help. I'm optimistic that Carter will produce for a full season in 2024.

I'm less certain with Davis, who this offseason parroted the same things he said a year ago about needing to be in better shape. I'll believe that when we actually see it.

6) Cam Jurgens will be fine

Raise your hand if you've heard anything about Zach Frazier, Juice Scruggs, Cooper Beebe, or Graham Barton this offseason. Who are they? They're guys who are entering their first seasons as starting centers for teams that had winning records last year.

None of those guys are replacing legends, like Jurgens is in Philly.

On the one hand, Jurgens has benefited from Jason Kelce. He got to understudy under him during his rookie season in 2022, and then he got to see up close how Kelce called the game from protection standpoint when he played next to him at RG in 2023. 

On the other hand, he is in a difficult situation now that he is the starting center, trying to live up to a Kelce's impossible standard.

Like Kelce, Jurgens is smart, and he has exceptional athleticism. The Eagles aren't going to have to throw out all the plays in their playbook that require the center to get out in front of screens, or to the perimeter on run plays. Jurgens can do it. He also had a respectable season playing out of position at guard, committing zero penalties, and (per PFF) giving up no sacks.

One of the questions surrounding Jurgens and Hurts will be how well they share the pre-snap responsibilities previously handled solely by Kelce. It will also be interesting to see how well the offense can execute Brotherly Shoves.

But overall, Jurgens should be fine playing at his natural position, even if some will insist on slighting him for not being as good initially as one of the best centers ever.

7) Nakobe Dean will look more like the player the Eagles thought they stole in the third round

When 2024 training camp began, the projected starters at linebacker — at least based on quantity of first-team reps — were Devin White and Zack Baun. Also in the running were Nakobe Dean and rookie Jeremiah Trotter. If you followed along with our Eagles training camp battle tracker throughout the summer, you saw how Dean got off to a shaky start — with one particularly bad practice in front of the fans at the Linc — but also how he absolutely crushed it during the last couple weeks of camp.

Dean was arguably the most physical player on the field this summer, making plays in the backfield against the run and as a blitzer. His pass coverage also improved as camp progressed.

There are concerns, most notably his ability in coverage, his diminutive size, and perhaps most notably, his durability, but Dean had his best camp in 2024 by a country mile. In my opinion, he definitively outplayed Devin White, who did not make the trip to Brazil with an ankle injury. Jeff McLane of the Inquirer reported on Wednesday that Dean had already (unsurprisingly) won the starting job over White, regardless of the injury.

In Philly we've seen our share of linebackers play well in the summer and then not so much in the fall or winter, but Dean has a better chance to become a positive influence on the defense than he ever has entering a season. We'll see.

8) Buy Quinyon Mitchell stock 

Mitchell will start against the Packers Week 1. It's only a matter of what role exactly he'll play. Some options, in order of likelihood:

1. He'll start at CB2 in base and then move into the slot in nickel, with Kelee Ringo coming in off the bench and playing outside.
2. He'll start at CB2 in base and then just stay outside in nickel, with Avonte Maddox coming in to play in the slot.
3. He'll start in the slot and stay there all game.

Mitchell has good size, great speed and athleticism, he's physical, and he showed throughout the summer that he has the confident mentality that is a necessity to play cornerback in the NFL. I think he's going to be a good player from Day 1.

9) The Eagles will win the NFC East, but won't go back to the Super Bowl

The last time a team repeated as NFC East division winners was when the Eagles did it in 2004. In each of the last 18 seasons, we've seen the previous year's division champion dethroned. 

The NFC East teams all play each other twice, as you're aware. They also play the entirety of the very good AFC North and the garbage NFC South. The NFC East teams each have three games on their schedules that their divisional rivals don't. The Cowboys have a first-place schedule, and as such, they play first-place teams in the NFC North (Lions), NFC West (49ers), and AFC South (Texans). The NFC East teams drew the following floating opponents this year:

Cowboys fans suffered through a frustrating offseason, as a bunch of starters and other role players left for other teams, and Jerry Jones played hardball for no good reason with the team's three best players. They feel ripe for a down season. The Eagles have an easier schedule than they did a year ago, and probably a better roster, than Dallas. Meanwhile, the Commanders are improved but still pretty far away from contention, and the Giants are still the Giants.

The Eagles are NFC East favorites, as they should be. However, teams like the Lions and 49ers have passed them by over the last year or so, and there are a number of up-and-comers, like the Packers, for example, who are breathing down their necks. The NFC as a conference is improving.

10) Nick Sirianni will survive

The Eagles reportedly flirted with the idea of replacing Sirianni with Bill Belichick after the team's epic collapse, and certainly Sirianni is squarely on the hot seat heading into 2024. But a divisional title should be enough for him to keep his job, just as long as there aren't obvious reasons to fire him, like there were after last season.

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