May 13, 2024
The Phillies have the best record in baseball, have one of the best offenses and pitching staffs in the majors and show no signs of slowing down.
With yet another series win in Florida over the Marlins — their ninth in 14 tries (three more were series splits) — Philly continues to surge with a 28-13 record, their best in decades to start a season.
But it will slow down. They've played the easiest schedule of all 30 teams so far, with games against the mediocre Mets and Nationals still ahead next week. They'll have the 16th toughest schedule the rest of the way.
If they can stay healthy, if Trea Turner can return before the slate gets rougher, and if their bats continue mashing the ball, they could go wire-to-wire and win 100-plus games. They're on an insane 110-win pace right now. Only one team has ever won that many games in the National League, the 1906 Cubs.
Perhaps this is a better way to go about winning a championship than we're used to. Awful spring starts cost the Phillies a bit the last two seasons, but they scratched and crawled into deep postseason runs both times as a Wild Card. It's a lot less stressful to picture this team as a juggernaut than as an underdog.
Overall, juggernauts have not fared well in recent years in Philadelphia. It's been the city of the epic collapse.
Philly fans are no stranger to teams getting off to epic starts in the early going. Back in 2019, the Sixers started 20-7. Last season, the Eagles started 10-1. Both ended pretty badly.
Team | Start | Finish |
2020 Sixers | 20-7 | 43-13, first-round loss |
2021 Flyers | 11-4-3 | 25-23-8, no playoffs |
2023 Eagles | 10-1 | 14-3, first-round loss |
2024 Phillies | 28-13* | ? |
With 121 games left, the range of possible outcomes ahead is essentially limitless. Here's what the team and its extremely cautiously optimistic fans hope will continue. These stats are among all 30 MLB teams:
• 28 — most wins
• +62 — second-highest run differential
• 49 — fifth most home runs
• .263/.337/.425 — second best BA, OBP, third best slugging*
• 3.22 — fourth best ERA*
• 388 — second most strikeouts
• 22 — most starting pitching wins
*Stats as of Sunday afternoon
The Phillies have a (small NL East) cushion and momentum. But they also have soaring expectations and will certainly be having a new experience the longer this continues. The last baseball team in Philly that had a chance to lead the league in wins did so — the 2011 four-aces squad that won 102 games. They faltered in the first round of the postseason.
With each of Philly's last two playoff runs resulting in them unseating the well-rested division champion Braves in the NLDS, there is no real evidence that having the best team in the regular season will lead to postseason success in this current era's expanded field.
The 2024 Phillies don't intend to worry about that. They believe winning solves everything. We'll have to see how far they're able to take that hypothesis.
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