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May 10, 2024

What they're saying about the Phillies: Alec Bohm's breakout and a first-place curse

The Phillies have targets on their backs as a first-place team.

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0364_09132023_Phillies_Braves_Alec-Bohm.jpg Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 13: A photo from the Philadelphia Phillies game against the Atlanta Braves on September 13, 2023 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. (Photo by Kate Frese/PhillyVoice)

The Phillies have 10 games against the NL East ahead over the next week and a half, and after resting Thursday the best team in baseball is ready to get back to it.

Around the baseball-loving world, the Phillies have not surprisingly been one of the top topics of conversation. Whether it's praising a potential future superstar or crunching the numbers on the team's epic fast start, there are no shortage of things to talk about when it comes to the Fightins'.

Here's what they're saying:

Best in the division

David Schoenfield | ESPN

The play from Alec Bohm and his lanky quick bat has been nothing short of exquisite so far this season. And in a division usually dominated by the play of Ronald Acuna and stars in Atlanta, and boasts Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, it's clear that Bohm has been the best of the bunch through 38 games. At ESPN, they're calling him the cream of the division thus far:

The answer might be Philadelphia's Alec Bohm, who is hitting .346/.413/.549 with four home runs and 32 RBIs. He leads all NL East position players in both bWAR and fWAR and ranks third in the majors in RBIs behind Ozuna and Juan Soto thanks to a .444 average with runners in scoring position.

Bohm has been a nice complementary player for the Phillies the past couple of seasons -- but perhaps also a little overrated, as his stat line was pretty empty beyond a decent batting average. He had a lot of negatives in his game: poor defense at third, not many walks, led the NL last year in grounding into double plays, not much speed on the bases, some power but not big power. These negatives were reflected in his bWAR: 0.9 in 2022 and 0.4 in 2023. He was an average hitter but was below average in pretty much everything else.

So far in 2024, he's been better in those secondary skills. According to Statcast, his defense has vastly improved (86th percentile in range), he's walking more, he's running the bases better and he's avoiding as many double plays. Of course, the batting average is way up (he just had an 18-game hitting streak end), which pumps his OBP and slugging figures. [ESPN]

Bucking the first-place trend

Paul Hagen | NBCSP

The Phillies have the best record in baseball. Is it a kiss of death? Former PhillyVoice contributor Paul Hagen, a legendary baseball writer in the city looked at some of the recent history of teams that have been in the Phillies exact position in recent seasons. And let's just say that the Phillies will need to buck an ugly recent trend.

In that spirit, here are some helpful reminders that the 2024 season is just now starting to get warmed up. That more than three-quarters of the schedule remains. That having the best record in baseball on May 9, along with 11 bucks, will get you a roast pork sandwich at Di Nic’s in the Reading Terminal Market.

Not to be a buzz kill. Just numbers that underscore Thomson’s pragmatism.

On this date in baseball history, for the last four full seasons, here are the teams that were No. 1 in the overall standings – and where they finished – followed by the eventual World Series winner and its overall position at the same time.

Spoiler alert. All made the postseason. None advanced to the World Series, much less won it.

...

The last time a team with the best record at this juncture went on to win it all was 2018 when the Yankees and Red Sox were tied at 25-10 (.714). There’s no reason why the Phillies can’t follow in those footsteps. This is just to say that they haven’t clinched a dang thing yet. Including dethroning the Braves at the top of the NL East. [NBC Sports Philadelphia]

Too many options

Tim Kelly | Phillies Nation

The Phillies have an abundance of riches in their MLB-best rotation right now. And it seems like the team is going back and forth a bit on what to do with the bottom of the staff with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull both pitching well as their 5a and 5b. With the Marlins next on the ledger and 10 games in 10 days ahead, it sounds like they'll go back to the regular six-man rotation with Turnbull waiting for a spot start or bullpen opportunity.

Manager Rob Thomson revealed before Wednesday afternoon’s loss to the Toronto Blue Jays that the Phillies will stay in turn in their rotation this weekend, starting Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Zack Wheeler against the Marlins.

There had been some thought that the Phillies might consider using six starters this time through the rotation, given that after an off day on Thursday, they will play 10 days in a row. At least for this weekend, the rotation order will remain unchanged.

Certainly, it’s possible that Spencer Turnbull makes a start at some point during the week, when the Phillies will have a four-game home-and-home series with the New York Mets. If that happens, one would think the Phillies will still have Wheeler, Suárez and Aaron Nola pitch on normal four rest. Wheeler specifically seemed frustrated with the extra day of rest after laboring through a start agains the Los Angeles Angels on May 1.

“I think it was more just routine this time, having more days rest, not being as sharp, I think that’s part of it,” Wheeler said. “Some points in the season you probably need it, but it’s just another day of trying to keep that rhythm that I’ve had going, just another day to try to keep it in sync.” [Phillies Nation]

A gauntlet for the Mets

Mark W. Sanchez | New York Post

And now a quick look at a slightly different perspective. The Phillies and Mets will play for the first time next week, with a rare home and home — two games in Queens before two games in South Philly. So far this season New York has been under the radar with an even .500 record, 18-18. They trail the Phillies and Braves in the standings, and will host the Braves for three games this weekend before dueling with Philly. It could be a make or break week for the Mets:

If the Mets are going to show in the early going whether they are a true contender or whether they are heading toward becoming sellers at the deadline, the next seven games might prove to be a litmus test. 

Six or seven wins against the Braves and Phillies would send a message that the Mets should be considered a legitimate playoff threat.

Six or seven losses against the Braves and Phillies would send a message that 2024 could be effectively over by the end of July. 

“You’re trying to run them down, you’re trying to chase them down.,” Jeff McNeil said Thursday ... “They’re going to be the teams to beat. Hopefully go out there this week and take care of business.” 


MORE: Phillies prospect watch


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