January 26, 2018
The folks over at Bovada.lv, like every other gambling website, have a boatload of things to gamble on in the Super Bowl, other than just the point spread. Bovada's list seems to be longer than most, so I took a hard look at their offerings, and feel pretty good about my top 10 plays.
First, we'll post my picks, followed by the entirety of the bets Bovada is offering (with my bet recommendations in red).
1) Pink will not say "Eagles" at any point before, during, or after the National Anthem: I have a friend who is a Pink expert. When asked for analysis on the topic, she informed me that Pink's father is a vet who served in the Vietnam War. "I think (Pink) would be so honored to sing the National Anthem that she wouldn't add in her own context," the expert said, who did not rule out the possibility of Pink wearing an Eagles jersey.
2) There will be a scoring drive during the game that takes less time than for Pink to sing the National Anthem: This one is stealing. The National Anthem, over the last 12 Super Bowls, has averaged 1:58, per oddshark.com. In the 18 games the Eagles have played this year, there were only three games (Bears, Seahawks, Cowboys) that did not have at least one scoring drive that was shorter than 1:58. I have no idea what Pink's National Anthem time will be, but it can't that far off from 1:58. Oh, and you get 3/2 odds!
3) “Wardrobe Malfunction” will not be mentioned at all during the telecast: The over-under number for this is 1.5, but again, it won't get mentioned at all. I think Bovada must be under the impression that the Janet Jackson "Waldrobe Malfunction" occurred during the last Eagles-Patriots Super Bowl. It did not. That was the Panthers-Patriots Super Bowl. Take advantage of their mistake.
UPDATE: I was reminded that the "Wardrobe Malfunction" prop bet is in there because Justin Timberlake is performing, and he was involved in that incident. I guess my head just never went there. Still, mention of the exact phrase "wardrobe malfunction" has to occur with time on the clock (not during halftime at all), not once, but twice. It's still not happening.
4) I'll take the Eagles moneyline at +160, please and thank you: This means that if you you bet that the Eagles win outright, you would have to bet $100 to win $160. All day.
5) I love the Eagles "margin of victory of 25-30 points" at 40/1: Do I think this will happen? God no. Can it? Sure. Four different times this season the Eagles beat teams by a margin of victory within that range. Granted, none of those teams were as good as the Patriots, but the capability is there, and a 40/1 payout is a nice long shot play.
6) The first offensive play of the game will be a pass: The Patriots pass on more than 59 percent of their plays as it is, and being the logically coached team that they are, they'll be fully aware of how well the Eagles stop the run. I'd be surprised if they didn't open up with a pass play. The Eagles could go either way. But at 1/1 odds, I'll take pass all day.
7) The penalty count will be over 12.5: The Eagles and Patriots combined for 14 penalties per game this season, while Gene Steratore's crew called an average of 13.94 penalties per game. While I think there may be something to "letting them play" in the Super Bowl, I still like those odds.
8) Take Jay Ajayi at 18/1 to win Super Bowl MVP: Ajayi has run really well since joining the Eagles. He's explosive and certainly capable of a big game, while at the same time, I'm not quite sold on the Patriots' run defense.
9) Ajayi will rush for more than 62.5 yards: I mean, if I like Ajayi as a long shot MVP play, then you can bet I also think he'll rush for at least 63 yards.
10) Dion Lewis will rush for fewer than 55.5 yards: Dion Lewis played in all 16 games this season, and he averaged 56 rushing yards per game. The Eagles have the No. 1 rush defense in the league, sooooo...
How long will it take for Pink to sing the US National Anthem?
Over 2 Minutes -150 (2/3)
Under 2 Minutes +110 (11/10)
**From moment he starts singing until the note "Brave" ends for first time.
What color will Pink's hair be when she starts to sing the National Anthem?
White/Blonde 5/4
Pink/Red 7/4
Blue/Purple 5/1
Brown/Black 5/1
Green 5/1
**Note: Predominant color.
Will Pink be airborne at any point during her singing the National Anthem?
Yes +250 (5/2)
No -400 (1/4)
**Note: Must be airborne from first note sang until she finishes saying Brave for the first time.
Will Pink forget or omit a word from the National Anthem?
Yes +300 (3/1)
No -500 (1/5)
**Note: From moment she sings first note until she finishes saying Brave for the first time.
Will Pink say "Eagles" before, during, or after she sings the National Anthem?
Yes +170 (17/10)
No -250 (2/5)
**Note: Must be clearly said.
Will Pink wear a Philadelphia Eagles shirt or hat while singing the National Anthem?
Yes +200 (2/1)
No -300 (1/3)
Will any scoring drive take less time than it takes Pink to sing the National Anthem?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
Who will be mentioned first during broadcast?
Robert Kraft -140 (5/7)
Jeffrey Lurie EVEN (1/1)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
Who will be shown first during broadcast?
Robert Kraft -140 (5/7)
Jeffrey Lurie EVEN (1/1)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
Who will be mentioned first during broadcast?
Bill Belichick -140 (5/7)
Doug Pederson EVEN (1/1)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must say Belichick or Pederson.
Who will be shown first during broadcast?
Bill Belichick -140 (5/7)
Doug Pederson EVEN (1/1)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
What Color will Bill Belichick’s shirt be at kickoff?
Blue 4/5
Grey 3/2
Red 15/2
White 15/2
**Note: Predominant color.
Who will be shown first on TV during the singing of the National Anthem?
Tom Brady -200 (1/2)
Nick Foles +150 (3/2)
Over/Under Donald Trump Tweets on February 4th, 2018
Over/Under 5
Will Donald Trump be mentioned during broadcast?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -150 (2/3)
How many times will Tom Brady’s age be mentioned during broadcast?
Over 1.5 -200 (1/2)
Under 1.5 +150 (3/2)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
How many times will Carson Wentz be mentioned during broadcast?
Over 3.5 -160 (5/8)
Under 3.5 +120 (6/5)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must say Wentz.
How many times will Robert Kraft be shown on TV during broadcast?
Over 2.5 -200 (1/2)
Under 2.5 +150 (3/2)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count
How many times will Giselle Bundchen be shown on TV during broadcast?
Over 1.5 EVEN (1/1)
Under 1.5 -140 (5/7)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must refer to vomiting or a similar work and say McNabb.
Will Donovan McNabb’s vomiting incident from Super Bowl 39 be mentioned during the broadcast?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count
Will Terrell Owens be mentioned during the broadcast?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must say Terrell Owens
How many times will the temperature outside the Stadium be mentioned during broadcast?
Over 1 -140 (5/7)
Under 1 EVEN (1/1)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
How many times will “Wardrobe Malfunction” be mentioned during broadcast?
Over 1.5 +170 (17/10)
Under 1.5 -250 (2/5)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
How many times will Janet Jackson be mentioned during broadcast?
Over/Under 1.5
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
How many clips will be show from Super Bowl 39 during broadcast?
Over/Under 1.5
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
How many times will the Rocky statue in Philadelphia be show during broadcast?
Over/Under 1
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
Will "Nipplegate" be said during broadcast?
Yes +500 (5/1)
No -900 (1/9)
**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.
Will Al Michael's refer to the spread on the game?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -150 (2/3)
**Note: Must clearly say what the spread was on the game.
Will anyone except Brady or Foles take a snap in the game?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -150 (2/3)
**Note: Kickers and punters do not count.
What color will Justin Timberlake's shoes be when he begins his Halftime show performance?
White 4/5
Black 7/4
Brown/Beige 7/1
Blue 10/1
Green 10/1
Red 16/1
Yellow 20/1
**Note: Predominant color.
Will Justin Timberlake be wearing a hat when he begins his Halftime show performance?
Yes +140 (7/5)
No -180 (5/9)
Will Justin Timberlake cover a Prince song during Halftime?
Yes +200 (2/1)
No -300 (1/3)
Will any members from NSync perform with Justin Timberlake?
Yes +300 (3/1)
No -500 (1/5)
What color will the liquid be that is poured on the game winning Coach?
Lime/Green/Yellow 9/4
Orange 5/2
Red 2/1
Clear/Water 4/1
Blue 7/1
Purple 10/1
**Note: Must be clearly shown on TV.
Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?
Teammates 2/1
God 4/1
City 5/1
Coach 7/1
Owner 10/1
Family 16/1
Does not mention any of the above 2/1
Will Tom Brady’s jersey be stolen again?
Yes 10/1
**Note: Must be reported by ESPN within 48 hours of the end of the Super Bowl.
TEAM/GAME PROPS
Philadelphia Eagles +5
New England Patriots -5
Total: 48½
First Half
Philadelphia Eagles +3
New England Patriots -3
Total: 24
Moneyline
Philadelphia Eagles +160 (8/5)
New England Patriots -180 (5/8)
Total Team Points – Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under 21
Total Team Points – Philadelphia Eagles – First Half
Over/Under 10½
Total Team Points – New England Patriots
Over/Under 27
Total Team Points – New England Patriots – First Half
Over/Under 13½
Will Tom Brady win Regular Season MVP and Super Bowl MVP?
Yes 5/6
No 5/6
Will any QB throw for 400 or more yards in the Game?
Yes +300 (3/1)
No -500 (1/5)
Will anyone except Brady or Foles take a snap in the game?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -150 (2/3)
**Note: Kickers and punters do not count.
Margin of Victory
Eagles by 1-6 points 4/1
Eagles by 7-12 points 15/2
Eagles by 13-18 points 14/1
Eagles by 19-24 points 25/1
Eagles by 25-30 points 40/1
Eagles by 31-36 points 66/1
Eagles by 37-42 points 100/1
Eagles by 43+ points 100/1
Patriots by 1-6 points 3/1
Patriots by 7-12 points 4/1
Patriots by 13-18 points 6/1
Patriots by 19-24 points 9/1
Patriots by 25-30 points 16/1
Patriots by 31-36 points 25/1
Patriots by 37-42 points 40/1
Patriots by 43+ points 50/1
Which will be the Highest Scoring Quarter?
1st Quarter 9/2
2nd Quarter 7/4
3rd Quarter 9/2
4th Quarter 7/4
First Offensive Play of the Game
Run -130 (10/13)
Pass EVEN (1/1)
Will the team that scores first win the game?
Yes -165 (20/33)
No +135 (27/20)
The first scoring play of the game will be
Patriots Touchdown Pass 3/1
Patriots Field Goal 3/1
Eagles Field Goal 4/1
Eagles Touchdown Pass 4/1
Patriots Rushing Touchdown 11/2
Eagles Rushing Touchdown 6/1
Eagles Defensive or ST Touchdown 16/1
Patriots Defensive or ST Touchdown 16/1
Eagles Safety 22/1
Patriots Safety 22/1
How many yards will the first Touchdown of the game be?
No Touchdown in the game 75/1
0 Yard Touchdown 33/1
1-7 Yard Touchdown 8/5
8-15 Yard Touchdown 4/1
16-25 Yard Touchdown 9/2
26-39 Yard Touchdown 5/1
40-59 Yard Touchdown 7/1
60-79 Yard Touchdown 12/1
80-95 Yard Touchdown 16/1
96 or More Yard Touchdown 16/1
Will there be a score in the final two minutes of the 1st Half?
Yes -300 (1/3)
No +240 (12/5)
Total Touchdowns
Over 5½ +120 (6/5)
Under 5½ -150 (2/3)
Longest Touchdown Yardage in the Game
Over/Under 43½
Shortest Touchdown Yardage in the Game
Over/Under 1½
The largest lead of the game by either team will be
Over/Under 13
The First Turnover of the Game will be?
Fumble 7/5
Interception 10/13
No Turnover in Game 7/1
Will there be a Kickoff Return for a TD in the Game?
Yes +750 (15/2)
No -1500 (1/15)
Will there be a missed extra point after a touchdown?
Yes +250 (5/2)
No -325 (4/13)
Will the game go to Overtime?
Yes +800 (8/1)
No -1600 (1/16)
Will there be a special teams or defensive TD scored?
Yes +200 (2/1)
No -250 (2/5)
Will a 2-point Conversion be Successful in the Game?
Yes +225 (9/4)
No -280 (5/14)
Will there be a safety in the game?
Yes +650 (13/2)
No -1200 (1/12)
Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game?
Yes -200 (1/2)
No +150 (3/2)
Will there be a flea flicker attempted in the game?
Yes +350 (7/2)
No -600 (1/6)
Total Number of Penalties in the Game by both teams
Over/Under 12½
Will there be a penalty for excessive celebration?
Yes +250 (5/2)
No -400 (1/4)
Will a Roughing the Passer penalty be called in the game?
Yes EVEN (1/1)
No -130 (10/13)
Total QB Sacks (Both teams combined)
Over/Under 4½
Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Over/Under 47.5 Yards
MVP AND FIRST TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN ODDS
Super Bowl 52 - Odds to Win MVP
Tom Brady 4/5
Nick Foles 13/4
Rob Gronkowski 17/2
Jay Ajayi 18/1
Danny Amendola 18/1
Zach Ertz 18/1
Dion Lewis 18/1
Alshon Jeffrey 20/1
Brandin Cooks 22/1
LeGarrette Blount 40/1
Fletcher Cox 40/1
James White 40/1
Nelson Agholor 50/1
Rex Burkhead 50/1
Jake Elliott 50/1
Stephen Gostkowski 50/1
Chris Hogan 50/1
Torrey Smith 75/1
Malcolm Butler 100/1
Patrick Chung 100/1
Corey Clement 100/1
James Harrison 100/1
Devin McCourty 100/1
Nigel Bradham 200/1
Trey Burton 200/1
Ronald Darby 200/1
Phillip Dorsett 200/1
Trey Flowers 200/1
Ricky Jean Francois 200/1
Brandon Graham 200/1
Corey Graham 200/1
Lawrence Guy 200/1
Malcolm Jenkins 200/1
Mychal Kendricks 200/1
Rodney McLeod 200/1
Jalen Mills 200/1
Patrick Robinson 200/1
Kyle Van Noy 200/1
Field 20/1
First Touchdown Scorer
Rob Gronkowski (NE) 15/2
Brandin Cooks (NE) 9/1
Danny Amendola (NE) 10/1
Zach Ertz (PHI) 10/1
Dion Lewis (NE) 10/1
Jay Ajayi (PHI) 12/1
Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) 12/1
LeGarrette Blount (PHI) 14/1
Rex Burkhead (NE) 14/1
Chris Hogan (NE) 14/1
James White (NE) 14/1
Nelson Agholor (PHI) 16/1
Corey Clement (PHI) 18/1
Torrey Smith (PHI) 18/1
Tom Brady (NE) 25/1
Nick Foles (PHI) 33/1
Any Other Touchdown Scorer 4/1
No Touchdown Scorer 75/1
PLAYER PROPS
Will Nick Foles have a higher QB rating than Tom Brady?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
Total Passing Yards – Nick Foles (PHI)
Over/Under 235½
Total Touchdown Passes - Nick Foles (PHI)
Over 1½ (-140, 5/7)
Under 1½ (+110, 11/10)
Total Completions - Nick Foles (PHI)
Over/Under 22½
Total Pass Attempts - Nick Foles (PHI)
Over/Under 33½
Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Over/Under 285½
Total Touchdown Passes - Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2 (-165, 20/33)
Under 2 (+135, 27/20)
Total Completions - Tom Brady (NE)
Over/Under 25½
Total Pass Attempts - Tom Brady (NE)
Over/Under 37½
Who will record the most Receiving Yards in the game?
Rob Gronkowski (NE) 3/1
Brandin Cooks (NE) 4/1
Zach Ertz (PHI) 4/1
Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) 5/1
Nelson Agholor (PHI) 7/1
Danny Amendola (NE) 7/1
Chris Hogan (NE) 7/1
Torrey Smith (PHI) 7/1
Total Receiving Yards – Zach Ertz (PHI)
Over/Under 57½
Total Receiving Yards – Alshon Jeffrey (PHI)
Over/Under 55½
Total Receiving Yards – Nelson Agholor (PHI)
Over/Under 37½
Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Over/Under 75½
Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks (NE)
Over/Under 67½
Total Receiving Yards – Danny Amendola (NE)
Over/Under 45½
Total Rushing Yards – Jay Ajayi (PHI)
Over/Under 62½
Total Rushing Yards – LeGarrette Blount (PHI)
Over/Under 29½
Total Rushing Yards – Dion Lewis (NE)
Over/Under 55½
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