July 12, 2017

Sixers Mailbag: What is the realistic ceiling for 2017-18?

By Rich Hofmann
PhillyVoice Contributor

After a couple of weeks off and with the 2017 offseason starting to wind down, I decided to go ahead with a midweek Sixers mailbag. Let’s get right down to business.

Do Sixers have to win multiple titles for 'The Process" to be deemed a success?
— ~~TO (@toglesby27) July 12, 2017

Sam Hinkie always talked about shooting for sustainable long-term success, so that is how I personally would grade this thing. In my opinion, a success would be the Sixers in legitimate title contention for at least four seasons, one for all of the Processing. Championships are extremely hard to come by, but do you at least have a realistic chance? This year, there were probably only two true title contenders (Golden State and Cleveland), but before these juggernaut Warriors existed, there were usually three to five every season.

My guess is that most people would settle for one title with a Sixers roster made up of these draft picks, though. It would be hard to call a Joel Embiid parade down Broad Street a failure at the very least.

Which guards will make the roster on opening night?
— Hyun-Soo Dad (@fakehyunsootwo) July 11, 2017

Surprise sixers cut/addition to 15 man roster
— Casey Young (@casey_young52) July 12, 2017

Let’s take these two together: Fultz, Simmons (if you want to count him), Redick, Bayless, TLC, and Korkmaz seem like locks at the two guard spots. My guess is that Nik Stauskas and T.J. McConnell are also on the Sixers roster, but they would be the surprise cuts from that group. I would imagine both might have some (little) trade value.

As for a surprise addition, does Jonah Bolden count? There isn’t a spot on the roster now for him and while Bryan Colangelo indicated that the Sixers second rounders (the ones they kept, anyway) will likely stay overseas, Bolden expressed interest in coming over now. His buyout at Red Star Belgrade is reportedly $675,000, which is the exact limit that the Sixers can contribute to said buyout. Perhaps if the Sixers find a taker for Jahlil Okafor, Bolden could come over now and get some G-League seasoning with Furkan Korkmaz.

2 way contracts...poythress seems a good candidate? Wonder if bolden would take that type of deal?
— Joe Murphy (@murph1305) July 11, 2017

It’s going to take a while to get a feel for two-way contracts, but here is a list of all the players who have accepted them so far. There were two players taken in the 50s this year who reportedly took them, Edmond Sumner and Alex Peters. Bolden would make more money playing overseas at Red Star Belgrade and perhaps just as much as him, the Sixers might not want to offer that deal because Bolden would become a restricted free agent after a one-year, two-way contract.

Then there is the question of earning potential on a two-way deal, which is between $75,000 and $275,000 (though the latter should be more common practice, via a handshake agreement). 13 of a potential 60 two-way spots are already taken, and there would be no harm to the Sixers offering someone like Poythress a two-way deal. The contracts don’t count against the cap.

Who would win a Sixers Home Run Derby? If you have to choose, what Sixer would be best to throw out the first pitch after the first title?
— matt brancato (@21stHentury) July 11, 2017

The answer to these questions is almost always Embiid.

what is a realistic ceiling for Sixers this season?
— The Process Lives (@CitizensBankers) July 11, 2017

What is the Sixers’ ceiling? Let’s say all of these things go right:

•    Embiid plays 70 games. The Process, Robert Covington and Brett Brown lead the Sixers to a Top-10 defense despite so many young guys playing heavy minutes. I think this is doable if the big guy stays healthy because he’s that good.

•    J.J. Redick’s shooting gives the offense a boost out of the basement, let’s say somewhere in the 19-24 range. This allows both Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons to produce strong, Rookie of the Year type of seasons. I think this is less doable.

•    Robert Covington and Dario Saric both become more efficient offensive players, moving up to the mid-to-high 30s from three. We will see.

•    Richaun Holmes’ team defense improves to the point where he becomes a two-way force off the Sixers bench. I could see Richaun taking another step forward, if not a major one.

This is just a guess, but I’d put the Sixers’ 2017-18 ceiling at 47 to 50 wins. I also don’t expect all of those things to go right, so my predicted Sixers record (subject to change!) is somewhere between 38 and 41. By far, the most important variable here is Embiid’s health.

Is JJ Redick $23M the highest single season salary in Sixers history?
— Chuck Scarpello (@CScarpello) July 11, 2017

The answer seems to be yes, thanks to Basketball Reference. How about that for some Sixers news? After combing through the various seasons, here’s what they have as the highest single-season salaries in Sixers history:

Player (Year)	Money
Webber (2006)	$19,125,000
Webber (2008)	$19,000,000
Webber (2007)	$17,600,000
Iverson (2007)	$17,184,375
Brand (2012)	$17,059,727
Bynum (2013)	$16,889,000
Iverson (2006)	$16,453,125
Brand (2013)	$16,059,854
Brand (2011)	$15,959,099
Brand (2010)	$14,858,471
Iverson (2005)	$14,625,000
Mutombo (2002)	$14,315,790
Granger (2014)	$14,021,788

In some of these cases (Webber ’07 and ’08, Iverson ’07, Granger ’14), the Sixers didn’t pay the entire cap hit due to a buyout, trading the player midseason, or acquiring the player at the trade deadline. The Sixers ended up paying Brand that huge number in 2013 despite amnestying him.

As far as players that stuck around for a full season, that would leave Chris Webber’s $19 million in 2006, ANDREW BYNUM’s $16.8 million in 2013, and Allen Iverson’s $16.5 million in 2006 as the highest numbers the Sixers have ever given out. Those two seasons were both brutal, so there isn’t much bang for the Sixers’ buck atop that list.

At $23 million per season, congrats to J.J. for setting the record. If Embiid can stay healthy this season, his max contract would top that number next year if the projected cap doesn’t go down.