February 18, 2015
In baseball, they say if you hit .300 over the course of your career, you're a Hall of Famer. I wonder what the comparable percentage is for NFL draft prognostication. If there were an "NFL Draftnik Hall of Fame," Mel Kiper would be a first ballot entry. Over the last five years, in his initial mock drafts, Kiper has successfully predicted a grand total of eight picks correctly (correct player/team/spot). In other words, he's 8 of 160. He's batting .050. That's not to say Kiper is an idiot. Other draft prognosticators are similarly inaccurate at predicting the first round of the draft in January.
Still, it's fun to look at just how difficult it is to predict the draft. Let's look year by year. In 2010, he got two right:
In 2011, he once again got two right:
In 2012, two again! (Matt Kalil was actually drafted 4th overall by the Vikings after they traded back a spot, but we'll give him that one).
2013: Swing and a miss:
And finally, last year, he got his usual two:
#ObviousConclusion: Mock drafts in January and February are less than predictive.
Just for fun, if Kiper's initial mock drafts over the last 5 years were 100% accurate, here's who your team would have drafted:
The Eagles would have amazing linebackers, the Jags would have every pass rusher ever, and the 49ers would be downright scary.
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
