October 28, 2015

The Eagles' offense is their defense, unfortunately

By Jimmy Kempski
PhillyVoice Staff

Bob Leverone/AP

The Eagles defense has bailed out Sam Bradford and the Eagles offense to an extreme degree this season.

Last Sunday night in Carolina, the Eagles forced three turnovers. On one of those turnovers, the Eagles offense started at the Carolina 39-yard line. On another, it started deep inside the Panthers' end of the field, at the Carolina 18. However, the Eagles offense was only able to convert those three turnovers into six points.

That has not been the case so far this season, however, which is troubling. The unfortunate reality of this season has been that the Eagles offense is leaning heavily on the defense to generate points via turnovers. Let's view the Eagles' issues offensively in regard to turnovers from a few different angles:

Takeaways

On the season, the Eagles defense leads the league in takeaways, with 19, and yet, the team is 3-4. A look at the teams who have forced at least 12 turnovers this season:

Team	Takeaways	Wins	Losses
Eagles	19	3	4
Broncos	17	6	0
Giants	16	4	3
Cardinals	15	5	2
Jets	15	4	2
Rams	13	3	3
Panthers	12	6	0
Falcons	12	6	1

As you can see, the Eagles are the only team on the list above that has a losing record. The other teams on that list have a combined record of 34-11.

Giveaways

Meanwhile, the offense has turned the ball over 15 times, which is tied for second worst in the NFL. A look at the company they're keeping on that side of the coin:

Team	Takeaways	Wins	Losses
Lions	18	1	6
Eagles	15	3	4
Browns	15	2	5
Colts	15	3	4
Titans	13	1	5
Chargers	13	2	5
Cowboys	12	2	4
Redskins	12	3	4

The combined record of the teams above: 17-37. Now that I've made the first ever discovery that turnovers are important in football, let's take a slightly deeper look.

Points off turnovers

As we noted above the Eagles lead the NFL in takeaways, with 19. While they did not turn takeaways into points against the Panthers Sunday, the Eagles are actually second in the NFL in points off turnovers, with 59 of them. Unfortunately, they only have 160 points overall, which means that 36.9 percent of their point production this season has come off of turnovers. That is the second highest percentage in the NFL:

Team	Takeaway points	Total points	% of points off takeaways
Rams	49	108	45.4
Eagles	59	160	36.9
Broncos	47	139	33.8
Titans	37	119	31.1
Jets	45	152	29.6
Buccaneers	41	140	29.3
Cardinals	66	229	28.8
Giants	45	166	27.1
Chiefs	40	150	26.7
Panthers	42	162	25.9
Falcons	46	193	23.8
Steelers	36	158	22.8
Bears	27	120	22.5
Bills	35	176	19.9
Raiders	26	144	18.1
Dolphins	26	147	17.7
Vikings	22	124	17.7
Seahawks	27	154	17.5
Jaguars	25	147	17.0
Saints	26	161	16.1
Lions	21	139	15.1
Colts	22	147	15.0
Packers	23	164	14.0
Bengals	25	182	13.7
Ravens	22	161	13.7
Browns	20	147	13.6
49ers	12	103	11.7
Redskins	16	148	10.8
Texans	15	154	9.7
Patriots	20	213	9.4
Cowboys	7	121	5.8
Chargers	7	165	4.2
NFL AVERAGE	30.5	152.9	19.9

So what does that mean? I think a pretty easy conclusion to draw, and one that has been backed up by exactly what we've seen on the field this season, is that the Eagles have been unable to sustain long drives off of punts or kickoffs to score points. They have been far too reliant on the defense putting them in excellent positions to score.

Points allowed off turnovers

Conversely, when the offense has turned the ball over, the defense has been able to bail them out. As we noted above, the Eagles offense has turned the ball over 15 times. Somehow they are in the top 10 in points allowed off of turnovers.

Team	Giveaways	Giveaway points
Packers	4	3
Steelers	6	10
Panthers	8	12
Vikings	7	13
Patriots	3	13
Seahawks	9	15
Falcons	10	17
Dolphins	9	18
Giants	6	20
Eagles	15	21

The Eagles are only giving up 1.4 points off of turnovers, which is outstanding from a defensive perspective.

Overall 'points off turnovers differential'

Putting the data above together, the Eagles have 59 points off turnovers. They have given up just 21 points off of turnovers. That gives them a "points off turnovers differential" of +38, which is actually the best in the NFL:

Team	Takeaway points	Giveaway points	Points off turnovers differential
Eagles	59	21	+38
Panthers	42	12	+30
Cardinals	66	36	+30
Falcons	46	17	+29
Rams	49	21	+28
Steelers	36	10	+26
Giants	45	20	+25
Jets	45	23	+22
Packers	23	3	+20
Broncos	47	34	+13

The combined records of the teams other than the Eagles on that list: 44-14.

When the turnovers dry up, and they will, how exactly are the Eagles going to win games with an offense that can't score without a ton of help from the defense?