October 08, 2015
As we've seen through four games this season, the Eagles' offense has been woeful, in so many different ways. One area where they've been particularly bad has been on third down. On the season, the Eagles are converting third downs at a 26.5 percent clip, which is next to last in the NFL, only behind Andy Reid's Chiefs.
They have regressed drastically on third downs from previous years:
| Year | 3rd down att | 3rd down conv | 3rd down % | Rank |
| 2013 | 83 | 213 | 39.0% | 12 |
| 2014 | 103 | 237 | 43.5% | 9 |
| 2015 | 13 | 49 | 26.5% | 31 |
Part of the reason the Eagles have been bad on third down is because they've been bad on first and second down. Chip Kelly attributed the Eagles' problems in that regard partly to his play calling.
"I think a lot of it goes to first and second down," said Kelly. "I think lack of success on first and second down. I've got to do a better job play-calling and put us in better situations so we've got a little bit manageable third-down situations, in terms of always being in third-and-long. Percentage-wise, you're just not going to convert as much as you are going to convert on third-and-short and third-and-medium. So I think it's an effort for us to do a better job on first and second down."
While it is admirable that Kelly put some blame on himself, he did so for the wrong reason.
The difference between Kelly's first two seasons in the NFL and this one is that the Eagles can't run the ball anymore. People talk about the NFL as a "passing league," but the reality is that some teams are ineffective passing the ball when they can't run it. In the Eagles' case, they can't run the ball, so they're often put in 2nd/3rd and long situations, which they haven't converted. On the season, they average 18 first downs per game, which is 29th in the league.
On first downs this season, by my unofficial count, the Eagles have called 43 designed run plays. Some facts about those run plays:
• They average 3.16 yards per carry on called first down run plays.
• Eight of those 43 called runs (almost one in five) went for negative yardage.
• 17 of those called runs (40 percent) went for 1 yard or less.
• Only 7 of those called runs (16 percent) gained more than 5 yards.
It's a vicious cycle. If you can't run the ball on first down, you won't convert on 2nd and 3rd down at a reasonable clip, and then you literally can't run the ball on first down because you just punted. I might add here that Donnie Jones is on pace to punt the ball 104 times this season. Only four punters have had more in a single season since 2006.
The Eagles entered the season with the oldest starting offensive line in the NFL, even after cutting Evan Mathis (a terrible decision, clearly) and Todd Herremans. Meanwhile, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL not to have drafted an offensive lineman in the last two drafts. And the results are on the field.
In other words, it's not so much that Kelly is calling a bad game. It's that "GM Chip's" offensive line can't block anyone, and now the most important aspect of "Coach Chip's" offense is completely ineffective and it's wrecking the entire offense.
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
