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September 12, 2016

Doug Pederson will make reasonable (or rather, obvious) gambles on fourth down

There's very little that's more frustrating than an overly conservative head coach who opts to punt on fourth and short at the edge of field goal range, especially when the punt sails into the end zone for a touchback.

Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson seems to understand that. In his first game as a head coach on Sunday, Pederson had a decision to make on a fourth and four situation from the Browns' 40-yard line. His three decisions:

  1. Attempt a 57- or 58-yard field goal.
  2. Punt.
  3. Go for it.

In my view, "option 3" was the obvious choice, as it was for Pederson.

“When you sit down and look at a lot of the math involved with the field position, the score, the time of the game, I mean, all the math just indicates that when you're around that (40)-yard line, you're right on the cusp of a long field goal; if you miss it, they get the ball at the 48-ish," explained Pederson after the game. "Even if you don't get it, now your defense is still on the field around that (35-, 36-, 37-)yard line if you don't get it. And then if you do, man, that's great. You're rolling. And we were so fortunate, you know, Carson and Zach made a great play. So for me, it was just a great opportunity to just keep our drive going.”

On that fourth and four play, the Eagles went to an empty backfield look that was the same formation they scored on earlier in the game on a corner route to Jordan Matthews. The Eagles got man coverage on the earlier TD, and they did once again on fourth and four, with Ertz drawing sub-6'0 safety Jordan Poyer. Wentz made a big boy throw while facing immediate pressure.

On the next play, Pederson dialed up a deep shot that Wentz completed for a touchdown to Nelson Agholor.

“Yeah, and normally in those situations, it's a little bit of -- kind of takes the wind out of the sails defensively, and you know, I was in that mode of, I wanted to stay aggressive with Carson and the guys, and just dialed it up the next play," he said. "And Nelson, great release off the ball on a great corner, and Carson put it right where he had to be. So it was just another aggressive play back-to-back.”

But it's not all about math, according to Professor Doug.

"You have to trust the guys," he said to reporters Monday afternoon. "Where we were at the 40-yard line, on fourth and four, it was a five-point game at the time, I felt like we were moving the ball. When you're outside of field goal range, and you can't kick the field goal, if you punt the ball the chances of it going into the end zone, it comes back out, what do you gain, like 15 yards?

"And it you don't make it, OK, the defense is playing well, they get the ball at the 40-yard line and let's go play. So I just felt comfortable with the guys and the way we were moving the ball, just a great trust in the guys to make that decision."

Yep.


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